When the World Cup group draw was released last year, many people got lost in the excitement that was “England vs United States”. Many people mistakingly thought that this match-up was the most important/biggest game that the United States would play in the group stage. Lost in the hype and excitement surrounding the build up to the game was the fact that many analysts had the US losing, yet still advancing to the 2nd stage.
Contrary to popular belief, the US’s most important game is their upcoming game against Slovenia, the #25 ranked team in the World (US is #14). After the Slovenia gained 3 points with a win over Algeria, this game has become nearly a must win situation for the US. Why? Let’s take a look at the standings after the 1st game. After the 1st game, Slovenia leads the group with 3 points, while England and United States has 1 point. Algeria is last with 0 points.
One has to “assume” that the #8 English will beat both Algeria and Slovenia. Yes, weird things have happened (Switzerland beating Spain), but on any random day, the English have to be considered HEAVY favorites against these two teams. If they do beat these two teams, the English will finish with 7 points.
Now lets take a look at the following scenarios making the assumption that the English beats both Algeria and Slovenia
The US LOSES to Slovenia
Slovenia would finish with 6 points. Even if the US beats Algeria, they will only finish with 4 points. The US would fail to advance to the next round.
The US TIES Slovenia
Slovenia would finish with 4 points. The US would have 2 points following 2 games. Their game against Algeria would become a MUST WIN situation.
The US BEATS Slovenia
Slovenia would finish with 3 points, and the US would have 4 points after the first two games. There would be less pressure against Algeria in their final game to get a desirable outcome.
To note, there are many external variables surrounding these outcomes, and it is very possible that England will choke like France or Spain and lose a match. In order to minimize the impact of external situations regarding the US’s advancement to the next round, the US needs to take advantage of what they’re given and win.
The US is a far better, more skilled team than Slovenia, and they SHOULD win this game. Anything less will definitely be a disappointment.
I feel there are 4 type of teams: a bad team, average team, good team, and a great team.
A bad team can’t beat anyone. An average team is the unpredictable one…they can beat good teams and lose to bad teams. A good team consistently beats the bad/average teams, yet can not consistently beat fellow good/great teams. A great team consistently beats everyone (or can beat anyone on the biggest stage).
With regards to basketball last season, bad team = Washington Wizards. average team = Golden State Warriors. good team = Cleveland Cavaliers. great team = Boston Celtics and LA Lakers.
The United States is definitely not a bad team, nor are they a great team. However, I dont know whether to label them an average team or a good team yet. The US has shown flashes of brilliance in world cup qualifying as well as pre-world cup warmups, but they have also shown inconsistency at times.
It’ll be interesting to see what kind of team shows up for the game tomorrow. The US is heavily favored against Slovenia and Algeria. Let’s see if they play like the favorites.
So after this morning’s two games, the first set of games of round 1 is finally complete. Here’s a look back at this week’s games.
Biggest Mistake: Serbia’s Zdravko Kuzmanovic handball in the box against Ghana
While the English will argue that Robert Green’s error against the Americans was the biggest mistake, in the overall big picture and given the circumstances, the error wasn’t THAT big.
1) The US only tied the game early in the 2nd half. The English didnt come away with a loss
2) The English had plenty of time remaining to win the game and had numerous chances that it couldn not capitalize on.
3) A tie doesnt screw over the English. They still have two more winnable games against Algeria and Slovenia to advance.
The following handball by Zdravko Kuzmanovic against Ghana was much more devastating.
1) It came in the 85th minute, so the Serbians had very little time to try to get an equalizing goal.
2) Serbia needed a point against Ghana to advance to the next round. Now Ghana has 3 points and Serbia has 0. Unless Serbia can pull a shocking upset tie/win against Germany, it’s very likely that this hand ball play will deny the Serbians passage to the next round.
Best Goal: Germany’s Miroslav Klose’s goal against Australia
close runner up: Brazil’s Macion goal against North Korea.
2nd runner up: South Africa’s Siphiwe Tshabalala’s goal against Mexico for the first goal of the 2010 World Cup.
Biggest Upset: Switzerland 1. Spain 0.
What a shocking win for the #24 ranked Swiss over the #2 ranked Spaniards. Is it nerve-wrecking time in Spain? Not yet, since I still feel this is one of the best teams in the world. I predict they’ll have wins over Chile and Honduras to qualify for the next round.
close runner up: Japan 1. Cameroon 0.While there are 22 spots in rankings between Switzerland and Spain, there are 26 spots between Japan and Cameroon. This was a Cameroon team that was 2nd in the 2008 African Cup of Nations and a finalist in this year’s 2010 ACN. Many people considered Les Lions Indomptables to be Africa’s best bet to advance the farthest in the tournament.
Most Impressive Team: Germany
Germany by far looked the best after their 4-0 win against Australia. Before the tournament, I had written in a previous post that the Germans might struggle from a lack of goal scoring because of poor form by some of their star players.
Well as we can see by this year’s Boston Celtics, you can never disregard great veterans. They always know how to come through in the clutch. Even though, Lukas Podolski and Miroslav Klose had very very bad club seasons, they came through on the big stage and scored Germany’s first two goals.
A very very impressive showing from the Germans.
close runner ups: Argentina, Brazil, Netherlands, South Korea: All these teams got necessary wins against quality opponents and all showed flashes of brilliance. These teams should all have a great tournament.
Most Disappointing Teams: Tie between Italy and France
The French and Italy both drew ties against Uruguay and Paraguay, respectively.
They played ugly football.
Enough said.
Random Thoughts and Musings
1. The most talked about object from the World Cup: the vuvuzela…the most obnoxious object ever created. Can someone please buy me one?
2. According to some reports, the England vs USA game drew more viewers than each night of the first four games of the NBA Finals. It’s finally great to see Americans interested in soccer. You dont know how many friends I have who are watching and following soccer for the very first time.
3. The Group of Death has to be the most interesting group, with Brazil ahead with 3 points and the Ivory Coast and Portugal tied with 1 point, and North Korea with 0.
After the game, I had thought that it will come down to either Portugal and the Ivory Coast advancing on goal differential. Basically, who beats North Korea the most and who loses to Brazil the least. I really dont think they have the ability to beat Brazil. However, I wont be surprised if the North Koreans pull off an upset and either tie/beat the Ivory Coast or Portugal.
4) The Asian teams (except for Australia) look very good, with Japan and South Korea getting wins, and North Korea playing very respectably against the top team in the world.
On that note, I think South Korea has to be a dark horse to make it the late rounds. This is a team that was a semifinalist back in 2002. They are a very strong and well-discipline team led by one of my favorite players in the world, Ji Sung Park. I’m very interested to see how they play on Thursday against a strong opponent in Argentina.
5) The lack of scoring has been an interesting topic around analysts. Out of all 32 teams, only one team, Germany, scored more than 2 goals. Even then, only 3 other teams scored 2 goals. What to make of it? Hopefully its just because teams are being tentative, and dont want to start the tournament off with a loss. Let’s just wait and see if this lack-of-goals trend continues.
Predictions Going Forward
Here are my predictions before the tournament started on who would advance.
After the first set of games, I’ve revised a couple…
Group A: FranceUruguay and Mexico
Group B: Argentina and South Korea
Group C: England and the United States
Group D: Germany and SerbiaGhana
Group E: Netherlands and Cameroon
Group F: Italy and Slovakia
Group G: Brazil and Portugal
Group H: Chile Swizterland and Spain
The World Cup is an international soccer tournament of 32 teams that takes place every 4 years.
It is arguably the biggest sporting event of the world, even bigger than the Olympics. Soccer is the world’s sport. No one else really cares about “American” football, baseball, or hockey.
During the World Cup, entire nations stop what they’re doing and focus on the game. Wars cease. Temporary truces are made. Hearts are broken. Heros are made. Legends are born.
How does a country qualify for the World Cup?
Qualification for the World Cup takes place over two years in a series of tournaments organized by the various FIFA confederations.
A total of 204 countries around the world competed to qualify for one of 31 spots in the World Cup finals (the host country is an automatic qualifier).
UEFA – Europe (13 countries)
CONMEBOL – South America (5 countries)
CAF – Africa (6 countries)
CONCACAF – North, Central American and Caribbean (3)
AFC – Asia (4)
OFC – Oceania (1)
Each federation has their own qualification process. For example, in the UEFA confederation, 53 teams competed for 13 spots. The 53 teams were split in 9 different groups (8 groups of 6 and 1 group of 5). All teams within a group played each other team twice, one at home and one away. 3 points are awarded for a win, 1 for a tie, and 0 for loss. The winners of all 9 groups gained a bid to the World Cup Finals. The top 8 2nd place teams then played a 2nd round playoff against each other. The winners of these 4 games gained a spot in South Africa as well.
The CONCACAF (which the US is part of) had a similar qualification process.
What is the format of the World Cup finals?
The world cup is divided in two stages: the group stage and the knockout stage.
In the group stage, there are 8 groups composed of 4 teams each, with each team playing the other three remaining teams. A win gets 3 points and a tie gets you 1 point. There is no overtime or shootouts to determine the winner, and the top two teams advance to the round of 16.
After this round, everything else is single elimination, which means that there are no ties allowed. If the game is tied after 90 minutes, they go to 2 15-minute overtime periods. If the game is still tied after these periods, the game goes into a shootout.
All 8 groups are paired off (A/B, C/D, E/F, G/H), and the winner of the group plays the 2nd place team of their paired group. 1st place in A, plays the 2nd place in B. 2nd place in A, plays the 1st place in B.
After that, there’s a predetermined quarterfinals bracket until the finals.
How are the groups determined?
The “group draw”, when all 32 teams were placed into 8 groups, took place back in December of 2009, and was watched by over 150 million people around the world. Yes. That means more people tuned in just to see who their country would play than those who watched the Superbowl. Soccer fans are that crazy, and the group draw is that important.
To get 8 groups, all 32 teams were placed into 4 pots. The host nation (South Africa) and the 7 highest seeds in the world based on FIFA rankings (Spain, England, Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Netherlands, and Italy) were placed in one pot, while the rest of the three pots were based on geography. One team from each pot was picked and placed into 8 different groups.
This year, the “group of death” was supposed to be Group G, composed of Brazil, Ivory Coast, Portugal, and North Korea. However, Ivory Coast star, Didier Drobga just broke his arm in a game, and might be unavailable for the World Cup. Ivory Coast will now struggle mightily in this group, and are in danger of not making it to the elimination round.
The United States got a very favorable draw in Group C as they have England, Algeria, and Slovenia. The US will have a very tough fight against England, and will be expected to easily handle Algeria and Slovenia.
Should the US advance from the group stage, they would play either Australia, Germany, Ghana, or Serbia in the next round.
Who has won the most World Cups?
A total of 76 different nations have played in at least one World Cup Final. However, only 7 teams have actually won it, all coming from Europe or South America.
Brazil has 5 titles, followed by Italy (4), Germany (3), 2 each by Argentina and Uruguay, and 1 each by France and England.
The past 5 champions were Italy (2006), Brazil (2002), France (1998), Brazil (1994), and Germany (1990).
Who are the world’s best teams right now?
The favorites to win the World Cup have to be Spain (winners of the Euro 2008), Brazil (winner of the 2009 Confederation Cup), the Netherlands, and England.
Germany, Italy, and Argentina are teams that can be very dangerous as well.
There are also a handful of teams that are difficult to predict how they’ll play and can very well pull off some surprises. I would put France, Portugal, and Ivory Coast (if Didier Drobga plays).
Does each country have the same expectations going into the World Cup?
All 32 teams come into the tournament with varying degrees of expectations.
For a couple teams, England, Brazil, and Spain…they expect to play in the finals and win the entire thing. Anything less than that would be considered a disappointment.
For some teams, just making it out of the group stage would be a huge accomplishment and success.
For maybe a team like South Africa, who automatically qualified for the tournament as the host country and who might not have qualified otherwise, not getting embarrassed in their group stage against France, Mexico, and Uruguay would be considered a great achievement.
How about the United States team? What are their chances at this World Cup?
Like I mentioned above, the United States received a very favorable draw, drawing England, Algeria, and Slovenia. The US SHOULD beat Algeria and Slovenia. They’re match against the English is a toss up and anything can happen in that match.
I have followed the United States mens national team ever since the 1994 World Cup and boy has soccer changed in this country. The quality of players this country is producing gets better year after year. A simple way to see how far this country has come is to see how many players on this team are playing in a European league, whether it be in England, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, or Scotland. Currently 17 players play in Europe, with 2 playing in Mexico (Herculez Gomez of Pachuca was the first American to ever lead the Mexican league in scoring this past season). Only 4 players play in the MLS (including Landon Donovan, who had a very, very successful loan spell at Everton in England this year). Back in 2002 and 2006, 11 players played in the MLS, and in 1998, the national team had 16 MLS players.
While the MLS has come a very long way and is actually watchable right now, it is still a class below the top leagues in England, Italy, Spain, and Germany. In order for the national team to be successful in international tournaments, its players need to compete against the best to gain experience and to further improve their skills and game some more. The MLS is a great league for players to gain playing experience, but for them to further improve themselves, they need to play in a better league against more quality opponents.
One thing thats pretty amazing is that not only are Americans just playing on teams in Europe, but they are also making a HUGE difference for their teams.
Take for example Maurice Edu, a midfielders who currently plays for the Glasgow Rangers in the Scottish Premier League. Back in February, Edu scored the game winning goal with less than a minute remaining in their Old Firm match against Celtic. The Old Firm is one of the biggest rivalries in soccer that debates back to 1888. Think Yankees/Red Soxs…but a million times bigger. With this goal, he wrote his name into the history books on one of the biggest stages of club soccer.
Or take Clint Dempsey, who plays for Fulham in the English Premier League. In their quarterfinal match against Juventus in the Europa League, he scored what some people consider, “the biggest goal in club history”. Clint Dempsey also became the first American to play in a European League Cup final as well this past season.
Then you have Landon Donovan, probably the best player the US has ever produced, who I’ve written about previously here, who was part of maybe the best, most beautiful sequence of plays in US Men’s soccer history.
The skill and talent of the United States has come along way in the past 12 years, and right now I believe the US can play and be competitive with anyone in the world. In 2009, the United States shocked the world at the Confederation Cup, composed of all the nations that won their federations tournament. In this tournament, the US beat Egypt, the winner of the African Cup 3-0 to gain a spot in the next round. Here they beat Spain, the European champions, in the semifinals 2-0. In the finals against Brazil, the winner of the South American federation, they were up 2-0 before losing 3-2 in a heartbreaker. The United States had never done this well in an international tournament and they shocked the soccer community.
The 2009 Confederation Cup showed everyone that the United States has come along way and beat anyone. But while they have still improved, they are still a cut below the top teams in the world. If you were to do a best of 10 series, I would predict the US would compile a 2-4-4 record against Spain.
That said, the United States team EXPECTS to make it out of the group stage and move on to the Round of 16. If they don’t, this World Cup (and the buildup to it during these past 4 years) would be considered a MAJOR disappointment. But I think the team will be just “blah” if they make it out of the group stage. I truly believe they think they can make it at least to the quarterfinal round like they did in the 2002 World Cup, and deep down inside, they would be very disappointed if they dont.
What players should I keep an eye out for in South Africa?
Keep your eye out on the stars of every team: Wayne Rooney (England), Landon Donovan (the United States), Lionel Messi (Argentina), Didier Drogba (Ivory Coast), Franck Ribbery (France), Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal), and Kaka (Brazil).
Another one of my favorite players is Park Ji Sung, captain of the South Korean team who placed 4th at the 2002 World Cup.
Also pay attention to the entire midfield of Spain, one of the scariest group of midfielders of any team. Andres Iniesta, Xavi Hernandez, Cesc Fabregas, Xabi Alonso, and David Silva are such an intimidating force. Throw in David Villa and Fernando Torres up front and you got one good team.
What players should I keep an eye out for in South Africa? Really. Answer the right question!
Fine, fine, fine.
Cristiano Ronaldo and Kaka are by far the two hottest soccer players in the world. It also happens that these are two of the best soccer players in the world as well, with Kaka winning the Player of the Year award in 2007 and Ronaldo winning it in 2008. They also happen to be teammates together at Real Madrid.
I’m making picks this year. Who should I choose?
I believe picking winners in soccer is “easier” than choosing winners for college basketball. Like I had written earlier, there are two things to keep in mind.
1) Only 7 teams have ever won the World Cup. Not everyone expects to win (or is even able to win) the World Cup.
2) There are and have been upsets in soccer, but they are very infrequent. Most of the time, the stronger, more established team will prevail through.
That said, here are a list of things to consider while choosing teams.
1) Be aware of “one man” teams.
Portugal is lead by Cristiano Ronaldo…and pretty much only by Ronaldo. Portugal’s success solely depends on how he plays. If he plays well, they can do decently. If not, Portugal has no choice. Also take note that Ronaldo has been known to choke under pressure and disappear in big games.
Ivory Coast could have made a lot of noise this year, and they were a dark horse candidate to win the World Cup. However, their best player (and one of the best in the world), Didier Drogba hurt his arm and *might* be ruled out of the World Cup. Ivory Coast now will struggle to get out of the group stage.
2) Keep track of injuries.
There have been many, many injuries in the buildup to the World Cup, with many coming to star, important players.
a) Didier Drobga (captain of Ivory Coast) – injured his arm. On Saturday, Drobga had successful arm surgery and is looking towards making a recovery to get back on the playing field. If Drogba cant recover in time, I really dont think Ivory Coast has a chance to make it out of their group.
b) Rio Ferdinand (captain of England) – injured his ankle. He’s the centerback in defense, a very important player on the team. England has had a lot of problems on defense and this definitely wont help their title aspirations. A lot of people had England winning the World Cup, but with Ferdinand out, it will be much, much harder.
c) Michael Ballack (captain of Germany) – injured his calf. A very important player in the midfield for Germany. He’s the leading goal scorer in Germany history, and a key to their attack. Germany takes a BIG hit with him not on the team. Germany will still probably get out of the group stage, but whether they can advance further without Ballack will be questionable.
d) Michael Essien (Ghana) – knee injury. Essien is supposedly making a rapid recovery and MIGHT be fit in a week, but still highly improbable. Essien is such a good player as a midfielder/defender, and Ghana loses one of their best, most important players. Ghana is up against Germany and Serbia, and I see it very difficult for them to advance.
3) Argentina has to be the biggest unknown this year.
Argentina has been traditionally one of the best teams throughout soccer history. However, they had one of the shakiest qualifying campaigns this past two years. They finished with a record of 8-4-6, and at one point, were dangerously close to not qualifying for South Africa. After a bad 1-0 loss to Chile, they fired their coach, and controversially brought in Diego Maradona, of the Hand of God fame, who is also regarded as the 2nd best player ever behind Pele.
After Argentina lost 6-1 to Bolivia shortly after that, things got really tense in Argentina when their qualification hopes were seriously in jeopardy. However, Maradona brought his team together, and really took control of this team. He then went on to lead their last two victories which saw them qualify for the finals. Since qualification, Argentina has look very good in 2010, winning all 5 of their games, including a 1-0 victory over Germany (in Germany). On top of that, all their players are playing at peak form right now.
It’ll be interesting to see which Argentina team shows up to play, the one that struggled to even qualify, or the one that beat Germany 1-0 this year. If its the latter, they have a serious chance of making a deep run in the tournament.
Who do you have advancing out of the group stages?
In no particular order of 1st/2nd place finishes…
Group A: France and Mexico
Group B: Argentina and South Korea
Group C: England and the United States
Group D: Germany and Serbia
Group E: Netherlands and Cameroon
Group F: Italy and Slovakia
Group G: Brazil and Portugal
Group H: Chile and Spain
Who do you think will win the World Cup?
Recently, I have been absolutely atrocious in making predictions and I feel people question me, “Do you really know what you’re talking about?”
Anyways. I predict that Spain will win its first World Cup ever next month.
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