Obsessedsportsnut's Blog

July 9, 2010

World Cup 2010: Previewing the Finals between Spain and Netherlands

Filed under: World Cup — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , — Jonathan Lee @ 11:43 am

FIFA Rankings
Spain – #2
Netherlands – #4

Head to Head matchups

Since 1920, Spain and the Netherlands have played 9 times. Each team has won 4 times, lost 4 times, and drawn once. The last meeting was a 1-0 victory for Netherlands in 2002.

Best World Cup Performance
Spain – 4th Place in 1950. Quarterfinalists in 1934, 1986, 1994, and 2002.
Netherlands – Finalists in 1974 and 1978. Fourth place in 1998.

The Netherlands are arguably the best team in World Cup history to have never won the title.

Best European Championship Performance

Spain – Won the Euro in 2008 and 1964.
Netherlands – Won in 1988. Was Semifinalists in 1992, 2000, and 2004.

How did they get here?

In the final round of qualifying for the World Cup, 9 teams in the World finished with no losses, either all wins or ties: Ivory Coast, Netherlands, Spain, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Australia, South Korea, and Nigeria.

Interestingly enough, only two teams won every single final round qualifying game: Spain and the Netherlands.

World Cup 2010 Performance

Spain: Lost their opening round game against Switzerland in one of the biggest upsets of the tournament. Despite the loss, they went on to win their group. Beat Portugal, Paraguay, and Germany to advance to the Finals. Outscored opponents 7-2 in 6 games.

Netherlands: Went undefeated in the group stage, and beat Slovakia, Brazil and Uruguay in the knockout rounds to advance to the finals. Outscored opponents 12-5 in 6 games.

Players to Watch

Netherlands: Wesley Sniejder, Arjen Robben, Mark Van Bommell, Drik Kuyt, Robin van Persie
Spain: Xavi, David Villa, Xabi Alonso, Andres Iniesta, Cesc Fabregas, Fernando Torres

Just take a look at the nominees for the Golden Ball, the trophy given to the best player of the tournament and the characteristics as identified by the FIFA Technical Study Group. 5 of the 10 players play for the Netherlands or Spain.

Andres Iniesta (Spain) – Very fine ball-playing attacking midfielder, a star for the team, impressive dribbling ability
Arjen Robben (Netherlands) – Very good pace and dribbling skills, wonderful ability to cut inside from the right, effective to his team
Wesley Sneijder (Netherlands) – A maestro in midfield, exceptional work rate, the engine of Netherland’s attacks, excellent passer and scorer
David Villa (Spain) – Top scorer; quick, two footed, very good on one-on-one situations, provides good final passes, excellent finisher
Xavi (Spain) – The metronome and the engine of the Spanish team, very influential in the passing style of the game, one of the finest midfielders in the tournament

The outcome of the game will be determined by…

…who will control possession and dominate the midfield.

The Spanish midfield composed of Xavi, Xabi Alonso, Andres Iniesta, Cesc Fabregas, and co. is the best unit in the World, and as a result, they are the best passing and possession keeping teams in the tournament. Against Germany, Xavi completed 105 passes, just only the 8th player to complete at least 100 passes since 1966. For the tournament, he now has 509 passes, only the 2nd player in history to complete at least 500 passes in a single World Cup (the other was Brazil’s Dunga who completed 589 in 1994). If the Spanish midfield is clicking on Sunday, they will give David Villa plenty of opportunities for chances on goal.

However, the Dutch midfield is pretty dang good as well, with Wesley Sneijder, Mark Van Bommell, and Nigel De Jong more than capable of holding their own.

The key will be whether or not van Bommell and De Jong can contain Xavi, Alonso, and Iniesta, and whether or not Sneijder can work his magic up front.

The competition within the competition

Currently, Spain’s David Villa and the Netherland’s Wesley Sneijder share the tournament goal scoring lead, with each scoring 5 goals. With both teams probably playing a very tight game, the lone goal can very well come from either Villa or Sneijder. Their team will win the title, and they’ll win the “Golden Boot”.

However, you can’t rule out Diego Forlan of Uruguay who sits behind Villa and Sneijder with 4 goals. If Villa or Sneijder dont score in the finals and Forlan scores 1 or more goals against Germany in the 3rd place goal, Forlan will pull the upset and win the Golden Boot.

For what it’s worth, in my group stage recap post, I had David Villa winning the Golden Boot Trophy.

The X-Factor

The biggest X-Factor has to be Fernando Torres, the player who scored the game winning goal against Germany in the Euro 2008. One of the best strikers in the World, Torres was hurt while playing for Liverpool earlier this year, and has struggled to regain his form. To a shock of many, Torres has scored no goals in 6 appearances this World Cup.

It’ll be interesting to see if Spanish coach Vicente del Bosque gives him the start this coming Sunday. If he happens to find his form and contributes well, he will form once again a very scary strike partner with David Villa, and give the already shaky Dutch defense even more problems.

The Predictions

I will agree with Paul the Octopus, and predict a Spanish victory.

July 6, 2010

World Cup 2010: The quarterfinal rounds

Filed under: World Cup — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — Jonathan Lee @ 12:40 am

The quarterfinal matchup of World Cup 2010 brought about some of the most interesting story lines of this world cup, none of which was more controversial than Luis Suarez’s handball incident during the Ghana vs Uruguay match.

Besides this incident, the other biggest surprise was the outcome of the Germany/Argentina and Brazil/Netherlands games. All 5 South American teams made it out of the group stage, and 4 of the teams made it to the quarterfinals. Many analysts predicted that the South American countries would breeze through this round as well and occupy 2 or 3 semifinal spots. However, this was not the case as Brazil and Argentina both were defeated by the Netherlands and Germany, respectively.

What happened in those two games? Weren’t Argentina and Brazil very strong in the group stage and the round of 16 stage? Were they over hyped? Are Germany and the Netherlands that good? Are Argentina and Brazil that bad?

Argentina and Brazil both boast some of the greatest collection of talent and skill of any team in the world. However, going into this tournament, there was a lot of controversy surrounding the managers of both these teams.

After Argentina struggled through qualifying for the World Cup, the Argentinian Federation fired Alfia Basil and brought in Diego Maradona, one of the greatest players ever in the sport, but also one of the most controversial. His appointment was marked with ridicule by the media and he was heavily criticized, mainly because this was his first time coaching a team at any level. He was further criticized after he used over 100 different players in his first years of coaching the team, trying to figure out the right players and strategy.

Brazil too had its share of controversy after Dunga took over as coach. He abandoned the traditional Brazilian, free flowing, creative style of play, and instituted a very traditional, conservative, defensive style of play. He even went so far as leaving Ronaldinho, one of the best players in the world, off the team because Ronaldinho didnt fit in his plans for the team.

Knowing this, how does this explain what happened?

Like I mentioned above, Brazil and Argentina both have some of the best collection of talent out of any team in this world. I believe they were able to breeze through the group stage and their round of 16 game on pure talent alone. For Argentina, I dont think Maradona knows that much about tactical football strategy and I really dont think that he did THAT much coaching during the World Cup. Argentina was by far a better team than Nigeria, South Korea, Greece, and Mexico and Maradona just let them be and let them outplay them. However, when they faced a strong team like Germany, who is coached by a very smart Joachim Low, they simply didnt have a chance against them because I think Maradona didnt really know what he was doing.

Brazil’s loss against the Netherlands was unlike the Argentinian’s loss…it was a bit more unfortunate. Brazil was up 1-0 at the half, but eventually fell victim by an own goal and a complete meltdown of the team after a player was sent off with a red card. However, like Argentina, Brazil wasnt as strong as everyone thought they’d be. I think the biggest warning sign was their 2-1 victory over North Korea. The one goal given up was the only goal scored by North Korea the entire tournament, who were defeated by Portugal 7-0 and Ivory Coast 3-0. A lot of people gave credit to North Korea for playing a very strong game, but that was no excuse for Brazil to not score more goals. After their 0-0 tie with Portugal, one could have seen that this team wasnt like Brazilian teams from before. This team’s offense at times looked out of sync, and unlike that of the number one team in the world.

What about Germany and the Netherlands? Where did they come from?

Germany has always been a powerhouse in soccer, and their success shouldnt come as a surprise to many people. Some might say that they’re the strongest team remaining in this tournament. Despite a 1-0 loss to Serbia, I think they are playing some of the best football right now after scoring 4 goals each against Australia, England, and Argentina. They are also the “biggest” surprise of the tournament for me. Before the World Cup started, I didnt think they would be able to advance far because of the injury to their captain, Michael Ballack, and because of the poor form of one of their best strikers, Miroslav Klose.

I think the injury to Ballack was a blessing in disguise. Ballack is a semi-diva on the field and constantly wants the ball. With him off the field, it’s given the younger players a chance to shine, which is what exactly Bastian Schweinstiger has done in the midfield. Another surprise has been the form of Klose. Klose scored only 6 goals in 38 games this past season for his club, Bayern Munich, which was the lowest goal total in his career. However, he’s completely turned around his game for the World Cup and has scored 4 goals for Germany so far. Just like the lesson learned from Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics this past season, star veteran, experienced players will always show up on the greatest stage.

Now, the Netherlands success might be a bit surprising to some people, but it really shouldnt be. The Netherlands, like Spain, is widely considered to be the best country to never have won the World Cup. They have always enjoyed much success at the European Championship level, making it to the semifinals twice this decade in 2000 and 2004 as well as the quarterfinal round in 2008. The Netherlands now are what Brazil used to be back in the day…a skilled, creative, free flowing team that is also very sound defensively. I fully expect them to dominate Uruguay in the semifinals and earn a birth in the finals.

Semi-final Predictions

The Netherlands over Uruguay
Germany over Spain

July 2, 2010

The Luis Suarez handball: Cheating or Not?

Filed under: World Cup — Tags: , , , — Jonathan Lee @ 5:37 pm

Today’s quarterfinal matchup between Ghana and Uruguay produced the most interested end to a World Cup game this year.

To recap what happened, there was less than 15 seconds left in the game, and Ghana had one last free kick before the game went into a penalty shootout. There was a resulting scramble in the box, with many shots/headers on goal. At the end, a header went on goal and was finally deliberately blocked with the hands of Luis Suarez. He was given a red card and will miss the next game. Had he not blocked it with his hands, it was a sure goal. Ghana was given a penalty shot, but it was then missed. Ghana went on to lose in the shootout.

A lot of people have been criticizing Suarez for cheating and many people have called for a ban or what not. A lot of people have even compared him to Thierry Henry, and his cheating incident by scoring a goal with his hand.

Do I have any problem with what Suarez did? No. On the contrary, I applaud him for what he did. He knew what the rules were, and he decided to play by them with the whole world to see. He knew that if he used his hands in the box, he would get a red card and a suspension for the next game. He knew that he would give up a resulting penalty kick where Ghana could still win. He knew too that this was the only way to give his team a chance at survival. He took one for his country, and his gambled paid off after Ghana missed the resulting penalty kick.

This happens all the time in American sports. In basketball, when a player is on a fast break and has an easy path to the basket, he sometimes intentionally fouled so that he doesnt get these “free points”. The fouled player then just gets to shoot 2 free throws as a result. In hockey, when a player is on a breakaway, he is often times tripped up as a last resort to save a goal. This player is then awarded a penalty shot. In football, if a receiver has a clear shot at the ball and the defender is beat, the defender will purposefully foul the receiver. The defender will then be called for a pass interference penalty and his team is at a disadvantage.

In all these cases, the defender purposefully sacrifices himself for the team so that the other team doesnt get an easy or sure score. In all situations, the defender knows that there will be retribution of some type, whether that be free throws, penalty shot, or field position. But in each case, he knows that these none of these are “gimme points.” He knows that free throws or a penalty shot can be missed. He knows that better field position might not lead to points. Its a gamble that the player is willing to take.

Now back to Suarez, he did the exact same thing. He sacrificed himself, and everything worked out perfectly. Suarez did something wrong. He was caught. A penalty kick was given, Ghana couldnt capitalize, and there’s no controversy what so ever.

However, I guarantee you things would have been a lot different had the referees not called the penalty and given the red card. All hell would have broken loose, and Suarez would have been vilified by the entire world for cheating. Im actually scared to imagine what would have happened had the refs not seen the handball.

Did he cheat? I would say no. Again, I applaud him tremendously for what he did. If he wasnt caught, would I have a problem with the situation? Yes, but not because of what he did, but because of the inadequacies of the refereering that didnt spot the penalty to begin with.

What do you think?

June 28, 2010

World Cup 2010: United States Postmortem

Filed under: World Cup — Tags: , , , , , , , — Jonathan Lee @ 10:17 pm

In my World Cup primer from a couple weeks ago, I had written the following regarding the expectations of the United States,

That said, the United States team EXPECTS to make it out of the group stage and move on to the Round of 16. If they don’t, this World Cup (and the buildup to it during these past 4 years) would be considered a MAJOR disappointment. But I think the team will be just “blah” if they make it out of the group stage. I truly believe they think they can make it at least to the quarterfinal round like they did in the 2002 World Cup, and deep down inside, they would be very disappointed if they dont.

First, off I am extremely proud of the team for what this team has accomplished this tournament, battling for 2 ties and a win in the group stage. They showed a lot of heart and determination in advancing, and they should be commended for winning their group for the first time ever.

At the same time, there is a sense of disappointment for not beating a very beatable team in Ghana and moving on to the quarterfinal round. US Soccer President Sunil Gulatti went so far to say that “the US failed to meet his expectations and that they were capable of so much more.”

On a side note, this is a good thing because this shows how far the US has come. Early at the end of the last decade, it was just an accomplishment to qualify for the World Cup. Early this decade, we just wanted to get out of the group stage. Now we have expectations for moving on farther in the tournament.

So what went “wrong” with this team? Two things. A poor offensive front line and a poor defensive back line.

In 4 games, our strikers (Jozy Altidore, Edson Buddle, Robbie Findley, and Hercules Gomez) accounted for a total of 0 goals. All 5 of our goals were scored by our midfield. Now even though Altidore didnt score a goal, he contributed tremendously to the offense, and given the circumstances that he didnt play with a legit strike partner, he did pretty well.

I cant say the same for Findley, Gomez, and Buddle. Coach Bob Bradley gave 3 starts to Findley and 1 start to Gomez. However, they were so ineffective in the first half of all games, that in 3/4 games, Bradley subbed them out and brought in Benny Feillhaber.

Coach Bradley was dealt a tough hand when Charlies Davies was injured in a life-threatening car accident last year, and couldnt recover in time to make the team. This is what Davies offers the team: speed, pace, skill, experience.

Findley, Buddle, and Gomez together could not compare to Charlie Davies. With Altidore playing with these 3 inexperienced players, the US attack just faltered.

The second thing that screwed over the US was a shaky defense. It’s defense was unacceptable. In 3/4 games, the US gave up a goal within the first 15 minutes: England (4′), Ghana (5′), and Slovenia (13′). The Algerians almost scored in the first 10 minutes as well had their shot not hit the crossbar. Even the goal scored by Ghana in the overtime period was scored early on and due to a lapse in the defense.

Yes a lot of things have been said about the US’s resolve, determination, and resilience, but they should have never been in the position of having an early deficit to begin with. Their defense was unacceptable.

Again, Coach Bradley was dealt an unfortunate hand when Oguchi Onyewu, one of the US’s best centerbacks, ruptured his patellar tendon in a game for AC Milan. In the US’s run to the finals at the Confederation Cup last year, Onyewu played such an amazing tournament against Egypt, Spain, and Brazil that AC Milan, one of the best teams in the world, decided to sign him to a 3 year contract right away. Unlike Davies, Onyewu was able to regain fitness in time to make the team, but you could clearly tell that he wasnt playing at 100%. He was beat many times, and finally Bradley benched him for the last couple games.

Looking Forward…

The biggest question mark moving forward is whether Gulatti will keep Bob Bradley or not. I think he has done an amazing job with this team, and has really taken this team to new heights. He was rather unlucky though in not having a healthy Davies and Onyewu on his team. However, I have constantly criticized his squad and team selections this past month. For the last time, I will reiterate my belief that Brian Ching would have been a much more effective strike partner to Jozy Altidore than Gomez, Buddle, or Findley were.

However, even with this team he has, you have to question his starting 11 selections for all games. Ive criticized him tremendously for the past two weeks for starting Findley and Gomez at top and subbing them out at halftime, while at the same time moving Dempsey at top and Feilhaber in the middle. Everyone could see that the 2nd half of ever game with this new formation was much, much better than the 1st half of the games. I believe things could have been much different.

In terms of the roster, the midfield and goal keeper situations are pretty much set.

Michael Bradley is only 22 years old and will only continue to get better. I truly believe that he can be one of the best center midfielders in the world in a couple of years. If Clint Dempsey (27) and Landon Donovan (28) avoid serious injuries, they will most likely be around in 2014. Stuart Holden (24), Jose Torres (22), Maurice Edu (24), and Benny Feilhaber (25) are all young and will be contributing mightly to the national team in the years to come. With the exception of Torres who’s playing in Mexico, all these players are playing in Europe and will only improve for the better.

Tim Howard (31) will mostly likely retire from the American team by the 2014 World Cup, but we have a more then capable replacement in Brad Guzman, who plays for Aston Villa in the English Premier League.

What the US needs to develop are quality strikers and defenders.

Jozy Altidore (20) and Charlies Davies (24) are both very young and will only continue to get better. Its scary to see how good these kids can be. But after these two players, the US dont have quality forwards. Gomez (28) and Buddle (29) probably are too old to be around for the next cycle. As much as I knock on Findley (24), he has the possibility to improve, but only if he gets out of the MLS and moves to Europe. I really cant think of anyone in the pipeline who has the possible talent to be the next great forward for the national team.

Our defense is even more problematic. Onyewu (28), Carlos Bocanegra (31), Steve Cherundolo (31), Jay Demerit (30), and Clarence Goodson (28) would all be over 30 by the 2014 World Cup. Jonathan Spector (24) and Jonathan Bornstein (25) arent getting any younger. Chad Marshall and Heath Pearce are both 25 and could factor in for the team in the future, but they have a long way to go to be a quality defender. While the soccer life of a defender might be longer than midfielders and forwards, the US cant rely on the “old guard” of Onyewu, Bocanegra, and Demerit to perform in 2014. Like our forward situation, I cant really think of and defenders in our pipeline that can make a difference on the national team anytime soon.

As a follower of the mens national team since 1994, Im extremely proud to see how far this team has come in 16 years. From fighting hard against Brazil in the 2nd round in 1994 to the debacle in France in 1998 where the US finished dead last among 32 teams to the 2002 run where they outplayed Germany in the quarterfinals and should have made it to the semifinals if not for some bad officiating to the 2006 tournament where they were unluckily drawn into the Group of Death to the 2010 team that captivated the heart of this nation, I can only hope for further success and improvements in the years to come.

June 26, 2010

World Cup 2010: Knockout Round predictions

Filed under: World Cup — Tags: , — Jonathan Lee @ 11:04 am

Round of 16

Uruguay over South Korea
United States over Ghana

Netherlands over Slovakia
Brazil over Chile

Argentina over Mexico
England over Germany

Paraguay over Japan
Spain over Portugal

Quarterfinals

United States over Uruguay
Brazil over Netherlands

Argentina over England
Spain over Paraguay

Semifinals

Brazil over United States

Spain over Argentina

Finals

Brazil over Spain

3rd Place Game

Argentina over United States

June 24, 2010

World Cup 2010: Group Stage Recap

Filed under: World Cup — Tags: , , — Jonathan Lee @ 11:41 pm

After 48 games, we have our 16 teams who advanced to the knockout round.

In alphabetical order: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, England, Germany, Ghana, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Paraguay, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, South Korea, United States, and Uruguay.

For those new to soccer, once a team progresses to the knockout round, there are no more ties. If a game is tied after 90 minutes, the games goes into a 30 minute overtime period that is split into 2 15-minute sessions. Unlike hockey, there is no “golden goal” in soccer where the first team to score wins. The two teams play out the entire 30 minute period. If the game is still tied after 30 minutes, the game is decided by a penalty kick shootout.

Moving on to recapping the group stage round…

The most surprisingly bad teams

1) Italy – The defending World Champions finished last in their group and didnt even get a win.
2) Cameroon – I had originally predicted Cameroon would finish 2nd in their group behind Netherlands, and before Japan and Denmark, but they finished with 3 losses. This coming from a team that was runners up in the African Cup of Nations in 2008, and breezed through qualifying with a 9-1-2 record.
3) Denmark – This was a team that finished 1st in its European qualifying group that consisted of Portugal, Sweden, and Hungary. The final loss to Japan was quite shocking/disappointing. I definitely expected more from this team.

The not-so surprising bad teams

France – Pretty self explanatory, only finishing with 1 points, a 0-0 draw against Uruguay. Their self-combustion was well documented.

Statistically, the French were the 3rd worst team at the World Cup. 2 teams finished with three losses and 0 pts (Cameroon and North Korea). Three teams finished with one tie and 2 losses (France, Nigeria, and Algeria), yet France’s goal differential of -3 was the worst out of all 3 teams. A pretty sad display.

It’s all the first time since the 1966 tournament that the finalists from the previous world cup did not advance out of the group stage in the following tournament. Pretty sad stuff for Italy and France.

The most surprisingly good team

Japan earning a victory over both Denmark and Cameroon and advancing to the next round had to be the most pleasantly surprising team in this tournament. Before this tournament, they had never won a World Cup match on foreign soil (they won 2 games as hosts in 2002). To beat two very strong teams in Denmark and Cameroon makes this advancement even more impressive.

The “didnt advance but definitely impressed” teams

1) New Zealand – The Kiwis are the #78 ranked team in the World, and I’d have to say that it was pretty shocking that they had three ties against Paraguay, Slovakia, and Italy. I had written in my World Cup Primer that not all teams expect to go on to the next round. Rather, a lot of team’s one goal is to not be embarrassed on the world stage. New Zealand was one of those teams. I fully expected them to lose every single one of their games, but the fact that they earned 3 hard ties has to be a HUGE accomplishment.
2) South Africa – A lot of news was made about the fact that South Africa was the first host team not to advance to the next round. To be fair, most past hosts were in countries with already well established strong teams. The closest case to South Africa was when United States hosted the Cup in 1994, and needed a ton of luck to advance. South Africa wasn’t favored to advance at all, but they made a really nice showing earning one victory, one tie, and one loss. They actually finished level with Mexico at 4 points, but lost the goal differential tie break to Mexico. Definitely a great showing for the hosts.

The best looking teams

In no particular order, the Netherlands, Brazil, Argentina, and Spain. These 4 teams are on my short list to appear in this year’s finals.

I also believe Portugal and the United States can make some serious noise in this knockout round.

1. Is there an unbalance across confederations?

The CONMEBOL (South America) had all 5/5 teams advance to the next round for the first time ever: Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. What’s even more incredible is that all 4/5 teams won their respective group. Even more impressive is that out of 15 games played, South American teams only lost 1 game (Spain winning 2-1 against Chile). Throughout the group stage, they amassed of record of 10-1-4. A pretty impressive record.

Contrast that to the plight of the CAF (African confederation) who only had 1/6 teams move on to the next round (Ghana). This was supposed to Africa’s coming out party, with South Africa being the first African host of the World Cup, and so many strong African teams, such as the Ivory Coast and Cameroon, that were supposed to make deep runs in the tournament. This has to be a disappointing tournament for the entire African continent.

One generalization you can make is that South American teams are the best in terms of creative, beautiful, and disciplined football with world class players. African teams on the other hand lack a lot of the discipline that is required to win, and as a whole, lack world class players.

Taking a look at other confederations, AFC (asian federation) has 2/4 countries advance, CONCACAF (northern/central america) with 2/3, and UEFA (europe) with 6/13 countries advancing.

2. Can the United States possibly get to the semifinals?

By winning their group, the United States put itself in such a favorable position to possibly reach the semifinal round.

Had they finished 2nd in their group, the US would have had to face Germany in the round of 16, and either Argentina or Mexico (note Argentina) in the quarters. By winning their group, they now face Ghana in the round of 16, and either South Korea or Uruguay in the quarterfinals.

This is no knock on Ghana, South Korea, or Uruguay, but they are no where near the level of Germany, Argentina, and Mexico.

The team of course has to take it one game at the time, but should the United States continue to play well, they have a legitimate chance of making an improbably run to the semifinals.

3. Who wins the “Player of the Group” stage award?

Without a doubt…Lionel Messi, the 2009 FIFA World Player of the Year.

On June 22nd, one of my favorite sports columnists, Bill Simmons, tweeted the following.

After watching Messi this year on Barca & now in the WC, I’m convinced he’s better at soccer than any U.S. pro athlete is at anything.

The biggest knock on Lionel Messi was that he played amazingly well for his club team, Barcelona, but struggled at times playing for Argentina. A lot of people attributed that to the fact that Barcelona coach, Pep Guardiola, plays a more wide-open, free-flowing system that allows Messi to thrive. Many believed that the Argentinian system didn’t allow Messi to play at his best. However, I think it was just a matter of time of the team getting accustomed to Argentina coach Diego Maradona’s coaching style. There’s now a trust amongst the team, and Maradona is allowing the team to just take off. Because of that, Messi is now thriving.

Lionel Messi hasn’t scored a goal yet for Argentina, but there’s a reason why Argentina is undefeated and has scored the most goals (7) through three games. (Yes I know Portugal has scored 7 goals as well, but those all came against North Korea…so that doesnt really count). Messi is absolutely terrifying the midfield and creating numerous chances for his team. Even though he hasn’t put one in the back of the net yet, almost all goals came because of the work he did.

How good is he and how important is he to Argentina’s success now and in the future? If being labeled by Diego Maradona, his coach and 2nd greatest player ever behind Pele), as his successor isn’t pressure enough, he was given the captain’s armband against Greece for the first time in his career. At the age 23, that made him the youngest Argentina captain ever.

Honorable Mention: Spain’s David Villa and United States’ Landon Donovan

On a side note, David Villa is tied with a couple others players with 3 goals as the tournament’s leading scorer. He’s my early candidate to win the “Golden Boot” as the player with the most goals at the end.

4. How were my predictions?

Pre-World Cup Predictions: 12/16 (wrong on France, Serbia, Cameroon, Italy)
Post-1st game Predictions: 13/16 (wrong on Cameroon, Italy, Swizterland)
Post-2nd game Predictions: 13/16 (wrong on Denmark, Italy, Serbia)

# of teams I was correct about from the very beginning: 9 – Argentina, Brazil, England, Germany, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and South Korea.

Full bracket predictions to be done by the end of 6/26.

On record, I will predict a Uruguay victory over South Korea and a United States victory over Ghana.

5) What to look foward to in the next round?

There are three very enticing matchups in the round of 16…

a) Argentina vs Mexico – a rematch of their round of 16 games in the 2006 World Cup.
b) Spain vs Portugal in the Iberian Derby.
c) Germany vs England

Looking forward to some possible quarterfinal matchups, we might be able to see Netherlands vs Brazil and Argentina vs Germany/England.

Should be fun.

June 23, 2010

World Cup 2010: United States vs Algeria post game thoughts

Filed under: World Cup — Tags: , , , — Jonathan Lee @ 10:55 am

WOW. simply. WOW. Maybe one of the most riveting games I have ever seen. I dont think I’ve ever had this much emotions watching a soccer game before. Simply wow.

Before I move on to some quick thoughts, I will step on my soapbox once again. In a time like this, I hate to find negatives in this situation, but once again, I will voice my displeasure regarding Bob Bradley’s decision of including Robbie Findley, Edson Buddle, and Hercules Gomez in the squad…and not Brian Ching. I dont think I will ever get off my soapbox at how bad a decision this was by Bradley.

Against Slovenia, coach Bob Bradley started Robbie Findley a top with Jozy Altidore. Today against Algeria, Bradley started Hercules Gomez at top. In both games, Findley and Gomez played horribly, looked out of place, and were subbed out at the half. In both cases, Bradley brought on Benny Feilhaber in the midfield and moved Clint Dempsey up to the forward position. In my previous post, I had mentioned that Bradley needs to scrap this idea of starting Findley, Gomez, Buddle at top with Altidore and just move straight into starting Dempsey at top. In both games, the US looked much stronger in the 2nd half with this new formation.

Buddle/Findley/Gomez are decent players, but they lack the experience on the international level. In a game like this, I dont think Bradley can trust them to perform.

Which brings me back to my original belief that Brian Ching would have formed the perfect strike partner with Jozy. He plays a similar game as Clint Dempsey, being a big, strong target man at top, but he would allow Dempsey to play in the midfield. Plus, Brian Ching has 45 international caps under his belt, so he has the necessary experience at the international level to succeed.

Anyways…moving on to the positives now.

1) After the Slovenia game, I had written I was unsure if I would call this an “average” or a “good” team. A good team beats team that they’re supposed to beat. The United States took care of business and earned their victory.

2) The one thing you have to love about this team is that this team NEVER gives up. This is a team that fights to the very last minute. Literally…the very last minute. In the game against Slovenia, you had Michael Bradley’s equalizing goal in the 82nd minute. Now today, we have the winning goal in the 91st. Amazing stuff. But again, this is nothing new.

Last year in world cup qualifying against Costa Rica on Oct 14th, Jonathan Bornstein scored in the 5th minute of injury time to equalize the game. Costa Rica was literally seconds away from playing in South Africa, but because of this goal, Honduras went on instead.

In last year summer’s Gold Cup tournament against Haiti, Stuart Holden scored the most beautiful goal to earn a tie with less than a minute left in the game. On a side note, look at what Brian Ching can provide to the team on his assist…

3) Landon Donovan continues to show everyone why he’s the best American player this country has ever produced. With his goal early in the 2nd half of the game and Slovenia and today’s goal, he is literally carrying this team on his shoulders. Back in March I wrote in this post,

If he continues to play at this high level at the highest level of soccer, he will be amazing at the World Cup in South Africa in June. The game experience of playing against quality opponent in pressure packed and hostile situations will be invaluable to the national team.

Landon Donovan has come through huge for the national team. Within two years, I predict he will make a full time transfer back to the Premier League and shine there.

4) Considering…everything, this is maybe the biggest, most important win in US history. The US has NEVER earned a point in each of their 6 3rd group game. Yes they lost every single one of them. A loss would have eliminated the team, and would have been the biggest disappointment to the team and fans back at home. Yes you can argue that their round of 16 victory over Mexico in 2002 was a big win, but it didnt really do much for the soccer in America.

After the 2009 Confederation Cup run in 2009 when the US beat Spain and almost beat Brazil, the profile of soccer has increased tremendously. You dont know how many friends I know who are watching soccer for the very first time ever, following the US team. There were so many people who woke up at 7am just to see the US play. Had they lost, I feel that the US soccer would have suffered tremendously and taken a big step backwards. But what this victory, there is an excitement in this country about soccer that Ive never seen before. With a 11am PST (2pm EST) kickoff on Saturday in their next game, I truly believe that a new record will be set with regards to how many people will be watching this game.

I also believe that the US’s achievements in South Africa and the fan’s excitement here at home is boosting the US’s bid to host the 2018 World Cup. This will only continue to legitimize American soccer (and its support) in the eyes of the international community.

5) The US wins their group for the first time ever!!! Everyone predicted that England and US would both advance, but not too many people had the US winning the group. Pretty awesome stuff.

The US will face the 2nd place team from Group D on Saturday, either Germany, Ghana, Serbia, or Australia.

By winning their group, the US also received a favorable draw for the quarterfinal rounds. Had they been the runner ups, they would have had to face either Mexico or Argentina (probably Argentina) in the quarterfinals if they win their round of 16 match. Now if they win their round of 16 match, they would face either South Korea or Uruguay, a lot easier matchup.

6) My predictions so far are pretty good.

My pre-world cup predictions: 5/6 (chose France)
My post-2nd game predictions: 6/6 (correctly chose US and England winning)

Anxious to see how I do for my Group D predictions. I have Germany and Serbia advancing.

June 21, 2010

World Cup 2010: Advancement Scenarios for all teams

Filed under: World Cup — Tags: , — Jonathan Lee @ 1:38 pm

With the conclusion of the 2nd set of games, the advancement picture for all teams is pretty clear.

The following teams move on to the next round, regardless of the outcome of the 3rd game: Brazil and Netherlands.
The following teams have already been eliminated from the tournament: North Korea and Cameroon.

All other 28 teams have a MATHEMATICAL chance of advancing to the next round, though some might be more probably than others.

Here are the following advancement scenarios for all teams. Note the following tiebreakers to decide the advancing team.

1) Total points after 3 games (3 pts for a win, 1 pt for a tie, 0 points for a loss)
2) Goal differential (total goals scored – total goals give up). This is noted by “GD” below.
3) Total goals scored
4) Head-to-head matchup

Group A

Uruguay (4pts/3gd) and Mexico (4pts/2gd) are in the driver’s seat in this group. If they play to a draw in their last game, both advance to the next round. France (1pt/-2gd) and South Africa (1pt/-3gd), have a very slight chance to advance. They have to outright win their game, and hope there is a clear winner in the Uruguay/Mexico game. On top of that, they have to make up goal differentials…the other game’s winner has to win by at least 2 goals, and either France/SA have to win by at least 2 goals.

Pre-World Cup Predictions: France and Mexico
Post-1st game Predictions: Uruguay and Mexico
Post-2nd game Predictions: Uruguay and Mexico

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June 18, 2010

World Cup 2010: US Advancement Scenarios

Filed under: World Cup — Tags: , , , , , — Jonathan Lee @ 1:00 pm

So I’ve been asked a bunch of times, what it will take for the US to advance to the next stage.

Here are the tie breaking situations regarding advancement (top 2 teams advance).

1. Total points after three games (3 points for a win, 1 point for a tie, 0 points for a loss).
2. Goal differential after three games (total goals scored – total goals given up)
3. Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches

So after two games, here are the standings of Group C:

Team Points Goal Differential Goals Scored
Slovenia 4 1 3
United States 2 0 3
England 2 0 1
Algeria 1 -1 0

I’ve had a lot of questions about what needs to happen for the United States to advance.

The US will advance if…

The United States BEATS Algeria regardless of the outcome of England vs Slovenia

or

The United States TIES Algeria AND Slovenia BEATS England

or

The United States ties Algeria AND Slovenia ties England AND the United States scores more total goals over 3 games than England (after 2 games, the US has scored 3 goals and the English have scored 1 goal)

To sum everything up…if the US wins…they’re in. If they lose, they’re out. If they tie, they need help from the other game.

Basically, the US is in the best possible position. Their advancement to the next round rests solely in their hands.

They need to take advantage of it and get that win against Algeria.

World Cup 2010: United States vs Slovenia Recap

Filed under: World Cup — Tags: , , , — Jonathan Lee @ 9:58 am

It could have been worse. Once again, the US found itself in an early hole, and struggled to earn a hard-fought tie. It should have been a win at the end of the game, if not for some lame refereeing. But again, a loss would have killed the US’s hopes for advancing to the next round. With a tie, they still have a good chance of advancing, but definitely need a win against Algeria to advance.

Moving on to some quick thoughts from today’s United States vs Slovenia game…

1) Robbie Findley is just plain horrible. He’s absolutely TERRIBLE.

All along, I never believed he belonged on the World Cup team. I understand coach Bob Bradley’s decision to include him on the team though: he provides a speed up front that Charlie Davies provided before he was injured. But that’s where the similarities end. Findley is nowhere near the player Davies was before his accident. The entire first half, the defense tried sending long balls for Findley to chase down, but he never put himself into position to receive them, and when he did, he screwed up every opportunity. He lacks the experience, expertise, and skill to correctly make the right decision.

He picked up a yellow card today as well, so he wont be able to play against Algeria. THANK GOODNESS. GET HIM OFF THE FIELD!!!

and I still stand by my belief that Brian Ching should have made the team instead of Findley.

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