Obsessedsportsnut's Blog

June 28, 2010

World Cup 2010: United States Postmortem

In my World Cup primer from a couple weeks ago, I had written the following regarding the expectations of the United States,

That said, the United States team EXPECTS to make it out of the group stage and move on to the Round of 16. If they don’t, this World Cup (and the buildup to it during these past 4 years) would be considered a MAJOR disappointment. But I think the team will be just “blah” if they make it out of the group stage. I truly believe they think they can make it at least to the quarterfinal round like they did in the 2002 World Cup, and deep down inside, they would be very disappointed if they dont.

First, off I am extremely proud of the team for what this team has accomplished this tournament, battling for 2 ties and a win in the group stage. They showed a lot of heart and determination in advancing, and they should be commended for winning their group for the first time ever.

At the same time, there is a sense of disappointment for not beating a very beatable team in Ghana and moving on to the quarterfinal round. US Soccer President Sunil Gulatti went so far to say that “the US failed to meet his expectations and that they were capable of so much more.”

On a side note, this is a good thing because this shows how far the US has come. Early at the end of the last decade, it was just an accomplishment to qualify for the World Cup. Early this decade, we just wanted to get out of the group stage. Now we have expectations for moving on farther in the tournament.

So what went “wrong” with this team? Two things. A poor offensive front line and a poor defensive back line.

In 4 games, our strikers (Jozy Altidore, Edson Buddle, Robbie Findley, and Hercules Gomez) accounted for a total of 0 goals. All 5 of our goals were scored by our midfield. Now even though Altidore didnt score a goal, he contributed tremendously to the offense, and given the circumstances that he didnt play with a legit strike partner, he did pretty well.

I cant say the same for Findley, Gomez, and Buddle. Coach Bob Bradley gave 3 starts to Findley and 1 start to Gomez. However, they were so ineffective in the first half of all games, that in 3/4 games, Bradley subbed them out and brought in Benny Feillhaber.

Coach Bradley was dealt a tough hand when Charlies Davies was injured in a life-threatening car accident last year, and couldnt recover in time to make the team. This is what Davies offers the team: speed, pace, skill, experience.

Findley, Buddle, and Gomez together could not compare to Charlie Davies. With Altidore playing with these 3 inexperienced players, the US attack just faltered.

The second thing that screwed over the US was a shaky defense. It’s defense was unacceptable. In 3/4 games, the US gave up a goal within the first 15 minutes: England (4′), Ghana (5′), and Slovenia (13′). The Algerians almost scored in the first 10 minutes as well had their shot not hit the crossbar. Even the goal scored by Ghana in the overtime period was scored early on and due to a lapse in the defense.

Yes a lot of things have been said about the US’s resolve, determination, and resilience, but they should have never been in the position of having an early deficit to begin with. Their defense was unacceptable.

Again, Coach Bradley was dealt an unfortunate hand when Oguchi Onyewu, one of the US’s best centerbacks, ruptured his patellar tendon in a game for AC Milan. In the US’s run to the finals at the Confederation Cup last year, Onyewu played such an amazing tournament against Egypt, Spain, and Brazil that AC Milan, one of the best teams in the world, decided to sign him to a 3 year contract right away. Unlike Davies, Onyewu was able to regain fitness in time to make the team, but you could clearly tell that he wasnt playing at 100%. He was beat many times, and finally Bradley benched him for the last couple games.

Looking Forward…

The biggest question mark moving forward is whether Gulatti will keep Bob Bradley or not. I think he has done an amazing job with this team, and has really taken this team to new heights. He was rather unlucky though in not having a healthy Davies and Onyewu on his team. However, I have constantly criticized his squad and team selections this past month. For the last time, I will reiterate my belief that Brian Ching would have been a much more effective strike partner to Jozy Altidore than Gomez, Buddle, or Findley were.

However, even with this team he has, you have to question his starting 11 selections for all games. Ive criticized him tremendously for the past two weeks for starting Findley and Gomez at top and subbing them out at halftime, while at the same time moving Dempsey at top and Feilhaber in the middle. Everyone could see that the 2nd half of ever game with this new formation was much, much better than the 1st half of the games. I believe things could have been much different.

In terms of the roster, the midfield and goal keeper situations are pretty much set.

Michael Bradley is only 22 years old and will only continue to get better. I truly believe that he can be one of the best center midfielders in the world in a couple of years. If Clint Dempsey (27) and Landon Donovan (28) avoid serious injuries, they will most likely be around in 2014. Stuart Holden (24), Jose Torres (22), Maurice Edu (24), and Benny Feilhaber (25) are all young and will be contributing mightly to the national team in the years to come. With the exception of Torres who’s playing in Mexico, all these players are playing in Europe and will only improve for the better.

Tim Howard (31) will mostly likely retire from the American team by the 2014 World Cup, but we have a more then capable replacement in Brad Guzman, who plays for Aston Villa in the English Premier League.

What the US needs to develop are quality strikers and defenders.

Jozy Altidore (20) and Charlies Davies (24) are both very young and will only continue to get better. Its scary to see how good these kids can be. But after these two players, the US dont have quality forwards. Gomez (28) and Buddle (29) probably are too old to be around for the next cycle. As much as I knock on Findley (24), he has the possibility to improve, but only if he gets out of the MLS and moves to Europe. I really cant think of anyone in the pipeline who has the possible talent to be the next great forward for the national team.

Our defense is even more problematic. Onyewu (28), Carlos Bocanegra (31), Steve Cherundolo (31), Jay Demerit (30), and Clarence Goodson (28) would all be over 30 by the 2014 World Cup. Jonathan Spector (24) and Jonathan Bornstein (25) arent getting any younger. Chad Marshall and Heath Pearce are both 25 and could factor in for the team in the future, but they have a long way to go to be a quality defender. While the soccer life of a defender might be longer than midfielders and forwards, the US cant rely on the “old guard” of Onyewu, Bocanegra, and Demerit to perform in 2014. Like our forward situation, I cant really think of and defenders in our pipeline that can make a difference on the national team anytime soon.

As a follower of the mens national team since 1994, Im extremely proud to see how far this team has come in 16 years. From fighting hard against Brazil in the 2nd round in 1994 to the debacle in France in 1998 where the US finished dead last among 32 teams to the 2002 run where they outplayed Germany in the quarterfinals and should have made it to the semifinals if not for some bad officiating to the 2006 tournament where they were unluckily drawn into the Group of Death to the 2010 team that captivated the heart of this nation, I can only hope for further success and improvements in the years to come.

June 23, 2010

World Cup 2010: United States vs Algeria post game thoughts

Filed under: World Cup — Tags: , , , — Jonathan Lee @ 10:55 am

WOW. simply. WOW. Maybe one of the most riveting games I have ever seen. I dont think I’ve ever had this much emotions watching a soccer game before. Simply wow.

Before I move on to some quick thoughts, I will step on my soapbox once again. In a time like this, I hate to find negatives in this situation, but once again, I will voice my displeasure regarding Bob Bradley’s decision of including Robbie Findley, Edson Buddle, and Hercules Gomez in the squad…and not Brian Ching. I dont think I will ever get off my soapbox at how bad a decision this was by Bradley.

Against Slovenia, coach Bob Bradley started Robbie Findley a top with Jozy Altidore. Today against Algeria, Bradley started Hercules Gomez at top. In both games, Findley and Gomez played horribly, looked out of place, and were subbed out at the half. In both cases, Bradley brought on Benny Feilhaber in the midfield and moved Clint Dempsey up to the forward position. In my previous post, I had mentioned that Bradley needs to scrap this idea of starting Findley, Gomez, Buddle at top with Altidore and just move straight into starting Dempsey at top. In both games, the US looked much stronger in the 2nd half with this new formation.

Buddle/Findley/Gomez are decent players, but they lack the experience on the international level. In a game like this, I dont think Bradley can trust them to perform.

Which brings me back to my original belief that Brian Ching would have formed the perfect strike partner with Jozy. He plays a similar game as Clint Dempsey, being a big, strong target man at top, but he would allow Dempsey to play in the midfield. Plus, Brian Ching has 45 international caps under his belt, so he has the necessary experience at the international level to succeed.

Anyways…moving on to the positives now.

1) After the Slovenia game, I had written I was unsure if I would call this an “average” or a “good” team. A good team beats team that they’re supposed to beat. The United States took care of business and earned their victory.

2) The one thing you have to love about this team is that this team NEVER gives up. This is a team that fights to the very last minute. Literally…the very last minute. In the game against Slovenia, you had Michael Bradley’s equalizing goal in the 82nd minute. Now today, we have the winning goal in the 91st. Amazing stuff. But again, this is nothing new.

Last year in world cup qualifying against Costa Rica on Oct 14th, Jonathan Bornstein scored in the 5th minute of injury time to equalize the game. Costa Rica was literally seconds away from playing in South Africa, but because of this goal, Honduras went on instead.

In last year summer’s Gold Cup tournament against Haiti, Stuart Holden scored the most beautiful goal to earn a tie with less than a minute left in the game. On a side note, look at what Brian Ching can provide to the team on his assist…

3) Landon Donovan continues to show everyone why he’s the best American player this country has ever produced. With his goal early in the 2nd half of the game and Slovenia and today’s goal, he is literally carrying this team on his shoulders. Back in March I wrote in this post,

If he continues to play at this high level at the highest level of soccer, he will be amazing at the World Cup in South Africa in June. The game experience of playing against quality opponent in pressure packed and hostile situations will be invaluable to the national team.

Landon Donovan has come through huge for the national team. Within two years, I predict he will make a full time transfer back to the Premier League and shine there.

4) Considering…everything, this is maybe the biggest, most important win in US history. The US has NEVER earned a point in each of their 6 3rd group game. Yes they lost every single one of them. A loss would have eliminated the team, and would have been the biggest disappointment to the team and fans back at home. Yes you can argue that their round of 16 victory over Mexico in 2002 was a big win, but it didnt really do much for the soccer in America.

After the 2009 Confederation Cup run in 2009 when the US beat Spain and almost beat Brazil, the profile of soccer has increased tremendously. You dont know how many friends I know who are watching soccer for the very first time ever, following the US team. There were so many people who woke up at 7am just to see the US play. Had they lost, I feel that the US soccer would have suffered tremendously and taken a big step backwards. But what this victory, there is an excitement in this country about soccer that Ive never seen before. With a 11am PST (2pm EST) kickoff on Saturday in their next game, I truly believe that a new record will be set with regards to how many people will be watching this game.

I also believe that the US’s achievements in South Africa and the fan’s excitement here at home is boosting the US’s bid to host the 2018 World Cup. This will only continue to legitimize American soccer (and its support) in the eyes of the international community.

5) The US wins their group for the first time ever!!! Everyone predicted that England and US would both advance, but not too many people had the US winning the group. Pretty awesome stuff.

The US will face the 2nd place team from Group D on Saturday, either Germany, Ghana, Serbia, or Australia.

By winning their group, the US also received a favorable draw for the quarterfinal rounds. Had they been the runner ups, they would have had to face either Mexico or Argentina (probably Argentina) in the quarterfinals if they win their round of 16 match. Now if they win their round of 16 match, they would face either South Korea or Uruguay, a lot easier matchup.

6) My predictions so far are pretty good.

My pre-world cup predictions: 5/6 (chose France)
My post-2nd game predictions: 6/6 (correctly chose US and England winning)

Anxious to see how I do for my Group D predictions. I have Germany and Serbia advancing.

June 18, 2010

World Cup 2010: US Advancement Scenarios

So I’ve been asked a bunch of times, what it will take for the US to advance to the next stage.

Here are the tie breaking situations regarding advancement (top 2 teams advance).

1. Total points after three games (3 points for a win, 1 point for a tie, 0 points for a loss).
2. Goal differential after three games (total goals scored – total goals given up)
3. Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches

So after two games, here are the standings of Group C:

Team Points Goal Differential Goals Scored
Slovenia 4 1 3
United States 2 0 3
England 2 0 1
Algeria 1 -1 0

I’ve had a lot of questions about what needs to happen for the United States to advance.

The US will advance if…

The United States BEATS Algeria regardless of the outcome of England vs Slovenia

or

The United States TIES Algeria AND Slovenia BEATS England

or

The United States ties Algeria AND Slovenia ties England AND the United States scores more total goals over 3 games than England (after 2 games, the US has scored 3 goals and the English have scored 1 goal)

To sum everything up…if the US wins…they’re in. If they lose, they’re out. If they tie, they need help from the other game.

Basically, the US is in the best possible position. Their advancement to the next round rests solely in their hands.

They need to take advantage of it and get that win against Algeria.

June 17, 2010

World Cup 2010: United States vs Slovenia

Filed under: World Cup — Tags: , , — Jonathan Lee @ 4:09 pm

When the World Cup group draw was released last year, many people got lost in the excitement that was “England vs United States”. Many people mistakingly thought that this match-up was the most important/biggest game that the United States would play in the group stage. Lost in the hype and excitement surrounding the build up to the game was the fact that many analysts had the US losing, yet still advancing to the 2nd stage.

Contrary to popular belief, the US’s most important game is their upcoming game against Slovenia, the #25 ranked team in the World (US is #14). After the Slovenia gained 3 points with a win over Algeria, this game has become nearly a must win situation for the US. Why? Let’s take a look at the standings after the 1st game. After the 1st game, Slovenia leads the group with 3 points, while England and United States has 1 point. Algeria is last with 0 points.

One has to “assume” that the #8 English will beat both Algeria and Slovenia. Yes, weird things have happened (Switzerland beating Spain), but on any random day, the English have to be considered HEAVY favorites against these two teams. If they do beat these two teams, the English will finish with 7 points.

Now lets take a look at the following scenarios making the assumption that the English beats both Algeria and Slovenia

The US LOSES to Slovenia

Slovenia would finish with 6 points. Even if the US beats Algeria, they will only finish with 4 points. The US would fail to advance to the next round.

The US TIES Slovenia

Slovenia would finish with 4 points. The US would have 2 points following 2 games. Their game against Algeria would become a MUST WIN situation.

The US BEATS Slovenia

Slovenia would finish with 3 points, and the US would have 4 points after the first two games. There would be less pressure against Algeria in their final game to get a desirable outcome.

To note, there are many external variables surrounding these outcomes, and it is very possible that England will choke like France or Spain and lose a match. In order to minimize the impact of external situations regarding the US’s advancement to the next round, the US needs to take advantage of what they’re given and win.

The US is a far better, more skilled team than Slovenia, and they SHOULD win this game. Anything less will definitely be a disappointment.

I feel there are 4 type of teams: a bad team, average team, good team, and a great team.

A bad team can’t beat anyone. An average team is the unpredictable one…they can beat good teams and lose to bad teams. A good team consistently beats the bad/average teams, yet can not consistently beat fellow good/great teams. A great team consistently beats everyone (or can beat anyone on the biggest stage).

With regards to basketball last season, bad team = Washington Wizards. average team = Golden State Warriors. good team = Cleveland Cavaliers. great team = Boston Celtics and LA Lakers.

The United States is definitely not a bad team, nor are they a great team. However, I dont know whether to label them an average team or a good team yet. The US has shown flashes of brilliance in world cup qualifying as well as pre-world cup warmups, but they have also shown inconsistency at times.

It’ll be interesting to see what kind of team shows up for the game tomorrow. The US is heavily favored against Slovenia and Algeria. Let’s see if they play like the favorites.

May 26, 2010

The Road to South Africa: US Mens Roster Released

Filed under: World Cup — Tags: , — Jonathan Lee @ 11:17 am

Today, US Men’s National Team coach Bob Bradley released his 23-man World Cup roster for South Africa, and boy was I disappointed.

Most choices were expected: DaMarcus Beasley and Maurice Edu showed enough in warmups and training to seal their spot on the team. Jonathan Bornstein was chosen over Heath Pearce…in the battle who was “less worse than the other.”

However, the most chocking, disappointing choice had to be the elimination of Brian Ching, and the inclusion of both Edson Buddle and Robbie Findley.

Brian Ching is one of the most criticized players on the national team roster. American’s concept of forwards is one of a quick, fast, powerful, goal scorer. However, Brian Ching isnt this kind of forward. Brian Ching plays more of the “target man” on the team…a big target who receives passes at the top of the box. He then uses his large frame to keep possession while the rest of the team comes up in support and uses his great passing skills and vision to distribute the ball. It’s a very unglamorous position, but a very important one, and a believe that every coach should reserve one spot on their roster for a large target man.

Robbie Findley’s inclusion means that Bradley valued his speed more than Ching’s possession abilities. Perhaps it was a move to help replace Charlie Davies, who used his speed to stretch out the defense. Whatever the reason, I really hope that Bradley knows what he’s doing.

Other than this…I have no other criticisms of this roster. It’s a strong team that can do a lot of damage in the World Cup.

The Road to South Africa: US, England, Mexico, and Portugal Preview

Filed under: World Cup — Tags: , , , , — Jonathan Lee @ 12:34 am

We’re less than 3 weeks away from the start of the World Cup finals in South Africa, the biggest event in all of sports. While the NBA, NFL, MLB, and NHL crown their winners as “world champions”…the winner of the World Cup is literally “THE WORLD CHAMPION” of the world’s greatest and most popular sport.

Two weeks ago, coaches released their preliminary 30 man roster, and last week all national teams started their official training. This week starts the first preliminary games where coaches see who’ll make their final 23 man roster, which is due next week.

So far this week, four teams of note took the field for the first time: England, Portugal, Mexico, and the United States. My quick thoughts on all of them…

United States

Tonight, the United States lost 4-2 against the Czech Republic, a team that did not qualify for the World Cup. Unlike Portugal, England, and Mexico, the United States did not field their top team, with coach Bob Bradley giving stars Landon Donovan, Tim Howard, Clint Dempsey, and others the night off. Bradley instead wanted to give the “fringe” players, players who are on the borderline of making the 23-man roster, a chance to make their case to go to South Africa. Yes they lost, but dont read too much into it.

The biggest weakness and uncertainty for the Americans has to be the defensive unit. The three top defenseman are all recovering from various injuries: Captain Carlos Bocanegra had minor sports hernia surgery a couple weeks ago, Oguchi Onyewu hasn’t played in a competitive match since last October after rupturing his patellar tendon, and Jay Demerit is suffering from vision problems after eye surgery from an infection. If all three are healthy and ready for South Africa, Onyewu and Demerit would be able to play the center defensive positions, with Bocanegra taking the left back spot (and Jonathan Spector) taking the right. However, if one of these players isnt fit, the two other players would play the center, and the left back spot would have to be filled by either Jonathan Bornstein or Heath Pearce or even Damarcus Beasley (a natural midfielder). As we saw tonight, Bornstein and Pearce were just plain bad, and neither one should be the starting left back on a team with high expectations for the World Cup. The next couple weeks will be very interesting to see the match fitness of Onyewu, Demerit, and Bocanegra. If they are ok to go, the United States will be ok in South Africa.

For other players, I think Bradley will take Brian Ching and Hercules Gomez, the leading scorer in the Mexican Leagues this year to South Africa.

I’m also pretty confident that Maurice Edu and Demarcus Beasley booked their tickets to South Africa as well.

England

The English team had one of the best qualifying campaigns going 9-1 (their only loss being a 1-0 defeat to Ukraine who ended up finishing 2nd in the group). However, like the Americans, this is a team that is striving to get healthy. The Manchester United duo of Wayne Rooney and Rio Ferdinand fought hard this entire season to stay healthy during the club season, and both are fighting hard to gain fitness in time for the World Cup. Also, Ashley Cole is just starting to get back into form after fracturing his ankle back in February.

Then you have John Terry, who was stripped of the captaincy (and given to Ferdinand) for his affair with the ex-girlfriend of teammate Wayne Bridge, who then proceeded to resign from the national team since he claimed he couldn’t play with Terry ever again.

The English opened up their exhibition season with a 3-1 victory against Mexico at Wembley Stadium. At times, the English looked really good. Wayne Rooney and Peter Couch were both effective as forwards in the first half of the game before they were substituted out. Theo Walcott showed flashes of brilliance, but also displayed poor judgement in his decisions with the ball. Only 21 years of age, he could already be playing in his 2nd World Cup next month.

However, the English were lucky to escape with a 3-1 victory as I thought Mexico actually outplayed and outperformed them. Like the Americans, the English’s defenses were exposed by a great passing team like Mexico. Way too many times did the Mexicans find holes in the defense and attack. Similarly like like the Americans, the left back position is one of the biggest question marks for the English team. Leighton Baines looked extremely shaky in the game against Mexico and was lucky that the Mexicans couldnt capitalize on all of his mistakes. If starting left back, Ashley Cole, cant get ready in a month (and with Bridge not available), Baines will definitely need to step up his game.

The X-factor for this team has to be the fitness of Wayne Rooney, my favorite player in the world. He injured his ankle in Manchester United’s Champions League quarterfinals match against Bayern Munich, and he’s re-injured it way too many times at the end of the season. England’s hopes for success in the World Cup depends on whether or not Rooney will be fit. He claims that he’ll be 100% ready to go by June 12 against United States. If he, then the Lions have a decent chance of progressing far in the tournament.

Portugal

On Monday May 24th, Portugal, the #3 team in the world, only managed a 0-0 tie against a team from The Cape Verde Islands, who are ranked #117. Eh? Yeah I never knew this country had a soccer team to begin with. Heck I didnt know this country even existed. This should have been a walk in the park for Portugal, who started their strongest team of Ricardo Carvalho, Miguel Veloso, Nani, Deco, Liedson and Cristiano Ronaldo, arguably one of the best players in the world. Yet even with such a strong lineup, they couldnt even score one single goal.

This definitely has to be cause of panic for all Portugal fans, especially since they’re playing in “The Group of Death” with Brazil, Ivory Coast, and North Korea in South Africa. This was also the same team that only had a 2-0 win against China a couple months ago. While Ronaldo may be the best player in the world, the rest of the team is inconsistent and unpredictable. This is also a team that struggled mightily in the European qualification stages. It will be a shame if they dont get out of the group stage at the World Cup, though its very likely.

Mexico

I’m not too familiar with the players on the Mexican national team, but from what I saw against England, this is a very strong and disciplined team. Even though England won 3-1, the Mexicans had many more scoring chances and held possession of the ball for a longer period of time then the English. They had good ball movement, passing, and scoring chances, but just couldn’t not capitalize on these chances as well as they would have liked.

The Mexicans are in a group with South Africa, France, and Uruguay. It’s very likely that the Mexcians can get out of the group stage, and if they do, they’ll be a very dangerous team to play against.

Upcoming Schedule

Wednesday: Netherlands vs Mexico. France vs Costa Rica
Friday: Paraguay vs Ivory Coast
Saturday: Hungary vs Germany. Spain vs Saudi Arabia. Slovakia vs Cameroon

Hopefully I can catch a number of these games and get a chance to see how teams look before they get to South Africa.

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