When the World Cup group draw was released last year, many people got lost in the excitement that was “England vs United States”. Many people mistakingly thought that this match-up was the most important/biggest game that the United States would play in the group stage. Lost in the hype and excitement surrounding the build up to the game was the fact that many analysts had the US losing, yet still advancing to the 2nd stage.
Contrary to popular belief, the US’s most important game is their upcoming game against Slovenia, the #25 ranked team in the World (US is #14). After the Slovenia gained 3 points with a win over Algeria, this game has become nearly a must win situation for the US. Why? Let’s take a look at the standings after the 1st game. After the 1st game, Slovenia leads the group with 3 points, while England and United States has 1 point. Algeria is last with 0 points.
One has to “assume” that the #8 English will beat both Algeria and Slovenia. Yes, weird things have happened (Switzerland beating Spain), but on any random day, the English have to be considered HEAVY favorites against these two teams. If they do beat these two teams, the English will finish with 7 points.
Now lets take a look at the following scenarios making the assumption that the English beats both Algeria and Slovenia
The US LOSES to Slovenia
Slovenia would finish with 6 points. Even if the US beats Algeria, they will only finish with 4 points. The US would fail to advance to the next round.
The US TIES Slovenia
Slovenia would finish with 4 points. The US would have 2 points following 2 games. Their game against Algeria would become a MUST WIN situation.
The US BEATS Slovenia
Slovenia would finish with 3 points, and the US would have 4 points after the first two games. There would be less pressure against Algeria in their final game to get a desirable outcome.
To note, there are many external variables surrounding these outcomes, and it is very possible that England will choke like France or Spain and lose a match. In order to minimize the impact of external situations regarding the US’s advancement to the next round, the US needs to take advantage of what they’re given and win.
The US is a far better, more skilled team than Slovenia, and they SHOULD win this game. Anything less will definitely be a disappointment.
I feel there are 4 type of teams: a bad team, average team, good team, and a great team.
A bad team can’t beat anyone. An average team is the unpredictable one…they can beat good teams and lose to bad teams. A good team consistently beats the bad/average teams, yet can not consistently beat fellow good/great teams. A great team consistently beats everyone (or can beat anyone on the biggest stage).
With regards to basketball last season, bad team = Washington Wizards. average team = Golden State Warriors. good team = Cleveland Cavaliers. great team = Boston Celtics and LA Lakers.
The United States is definitely not a bad team, nor are they a great team. However, I dont know whether to label them an average team or a good team yet. The US has shown flashes of brilliance in world cup qualifying as well as pre-world cup warmups, but they have also shown inconsistency at times.
It’ll be interesting to see what kind of team shows up for the game tomorrow. The US is heavily favored against Slovenia and Algeria. Let’s see if they play like the favorites.
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