Obsessedsportsnut's Blog

My original brackets were atrocious. I was 0/2 in the title game, 1/4 in the Final Four, 4/8 in the Elite 8, and 9/16 in the Sweet 16. This was by far the worst I’ve ever done in picking a bracket.

In my 2nd chance bracket (starting at the sweet 16), it was even worse! 0/2 in the title game, 0/4 in the Final four, and 4/8 in the Elite 8. Pathetic.

Last week, I made my predictions for the Final Four and title game: West Virginia beating Duke and Michigan State beating Butler, with WVU winning the title. Oh what do you know…I was wrong in both games.

While most of the time I think I know a lot about sports, it are times like these where I realize I know absolutely nothing.

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Well. The National Title game is set! Duke Blue Devils versus the Butler Bulldogs. Back in November, I dont think you could have found any person (not related to the Bulter program) in this country who would have predicted that Butler would play in the national title game. Honestly, Im not even sure sure the Butler players would have predicted it.

This is David vs Goliath to the extreme. Never before since Michigan State and Indiana State pitted Magic Johnson vs Larry Bird in 1969 have we seen such polar opposites in programs (and coaches). We have Duke, the 4th winningest college basketball program of all time, vs Butler, who before this season never even made it past the Sweet 16. Duke on the other hand has made it to the Elite 8 18 times. This is Butler’s 1st trip to the National Title game. Duke has played in 9!

Side note/fun trivia: Butler plays their home games at the Hinkle (Butler) Fieldhouse. The Hinkle Fieldhouse used to host the Indiana State high school basketball championships, most famously the 1959 game between Milan High and Muncie Central, one of the biggest David and Goliath games in basketball. The story was famously made into a movie, Hoosiers, one of the greatest sports movies of all time.

Besides, the uneven match up between schools, you have the uneven match up between coaches: Brad Stevens vs Mike Krzyzewski. Brad Stevens is only 33 years old. Coach K has been coaching for 35 years (30 at Duke). Brad Stevens had only been coaching for 3 years. Coach K has won 3 national titles at Duke.

However, what I love about Brad Stevens is that he isnt fazed by any of this. He’s already beaten Syracuse and Michigan State, coached by Jim Boeheim and Tom Izzo, respectively, who are two of the top 5 greatest college basketball coaches in the game. Jim Boehiem was just voted “Coach of the Year” by the AP Press. Just by looking at Stevens coach on the sideline, you can tell he has a confidence about him and that he knows that he and his team belongs on the big stage.

The title game on Monday will be a very interesting game, and in predicting the outcome, let’s take a look at the semifinal matchups and what were the difference makers.

Butler vs Michigan State

One thing you noticed about Butler is their amazing defense. In all 5 of their tournament games so far, they have kept their opponents to under 60 points. This is extremely surprising when you see that all 5 of these opponents averaged more than 72 points a game over the entire season: Michigan State (72.4), Kansas State (79.7), Syracuse (80.9), Murray State (76.5), and UTEP (75.3). Their stingy defense creates turnovers, and these turnovers lead to fastbreak points. Against Michigan State, Butler scored 20 points off turnovers. Also, 12 out of Butler’s 15 transition points came off of turnovers as well. Butler’s man defense is one of the most disciplined units I have seen in the college game.

On offense for Butler, you obviously have Gordon Hayward, who may be the most NBA ready player in the Final Four. There’s not really much to say about him other than the fact that he’s the real deal…a complete player who shoots, passes, and rebounds all extremely well. He was definitely the star of the game.

Duke vs West Virginia

When 2 of the big three of Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith are on in any given night, Duke is amazing, and its normally enough to win. In all games this tournament, one of these three players had an “off shooting night”, yet Duke found a way to win. Tonight, all three players were on fire, and it was outright scary. They were a combined 22/45 from the field, and 12/23 from the 3 point line. They combined for a total of 64 points, and they outscore the entire WVU team (57). It was only the 3rd time this season that all 3 scored more than 19 points each. Their chemistry and ball movement on the court was like watching a well-oiled offensive machine at its finest.

My Prediction: Butler over Duke. Im finally jumping on the Butler bandwagon. Defense wins championships right? Singler, Scheyer, and Smith can’t have another game where they shoot amazingly well….right?

The Final Four is set! West Virginia, Duke, Michigan State, and Butler. Finally in the last two games of the Elite 8, normalcy has finally returned with Duke and Michigan State winning today’s games.

Everyone is going to remember this tournament as the year parity returned and the year of the upsets, most notably the losses of Kansas, Syracuse, and Kentucky. People will remember Georgetown losing in the 1st round and Villanova playing horribly and losing in the 2nd. People will look at the Final Four and scratch their head to see how teams like West Virginia (1st Final Four since 1959) and Butler (1st ever appearance in the Final Four) lasted so long.

However, while it is surprising to see Michigan State, West Virginia and Butler here instead of Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse/Kansas State respectively, it should not be a shock to see these four teams here.

While Kansas and Kentucky got all the preseason hype, these 4 teams all were well regarded before the season started and all were ranked in the top 15. Michigan State was ranked #2, West Virginia #8, Duke #9, and Butler #11. Michigan State even received 5 1st place votes to start the season. Throughout the season, West Virginia, Duke and Michigan State were always ranked in the top 15. Butler fell out of the rankings for only 5 weeks, but ended the year on a 20 game win streak and the #11 team.

So yes, while there were many upsets, these 4 teams have been deserving the entire season to be in the Final Four.

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I think the most fascinating story line during this Final Four is the match ups between some great coaches.

In Michigan State, you have Tom Izzo, who might be the best coach in college basketball right now. Ever since taking over as head coach in 1995, he has coached MSU to two national title games, winning one in 2000, while also leading MSU to 6 Final Fours, the most of any team. For a team that’s been struggling with injuries, he’s been the steady hand to lead this team to the Final Four.

At Duke, you obviously have Coach Mike Krzyzewski, who was also the coach of Team USA at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Coach K has led Duke to 7 NCAA Championship Games, winning 3 of them, while also leading Duke to 11 Final Fours, 2nd only to John Wooden’s 12 with UCLA.

At West Virginia, you have Bob Huggins, who originally found great success at Cincinnati, leading the Bearcats to 14 straight tournament appearances, including one Final Four and 2 Elite 8 berths.

And finally at Bulter, you have Brad Stevens, by far the youngest and most experienced coach out of the 4. However, he just set the record for the coaching the most wins in the first 3 seasons of a coach’s career (88).

It’ll be interesting to see how Huggins coaches vs Coach K and how Stevens will match up his Butler squad against Izzo’s Michigan State squad. It’ll be fascinating to see what game plans are drawn up.

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Prediction time. I’ve been so off this year, it’s not even funny. In my full tournament bracket, I had Kansas beating Baylor in the tournament game, and I had only 1 correct Final Four prediction (West Virginia).

In my “2nd chance bracket”, I DID EVEN WORSE! I had only 4 out of 12 picks correct. In the West and Midwest region, I picked EVERY SINGLE ELITE 8 game incorrectly. In the South and East regions, I picked all 4 Sweet 16 games correctly, but I was dead wrong on both my Elite 8 games, since I had Kentucky and Baylor winning. So pathetic.

So…my last chance at redemption…my last picks

WEST VIRGINIA over MICHIGAN STATE in the national title game.

I would absolutely LOVE to see Morgantown in flames 🙂

soo…let’s forget that I even tried to correctly pick the tourney winner this year. My bracket after the first two rounds was absolutely atrocious…maybe the worst ive ever done in my life.

With the Sweet 16 starting today, here are my predictions for the next 4 rounds…

Sweet 16

Midwest

#9 Northern Iowa over #5 Michigan State

#2 Ohio State over #6 Tennessee

West

#1 Syracuse over #5 Butler

#6 Xavier over #2 Kansas State

East

#1 Kentucky over #12 Cornell

#2 West Virginia over #11 Washington

South

#1 Duke over #4 Purdue

#3 Baylor over #10 Saint Mary’s

Elite 8

West: #2 Ohio State over #9 Northern Iowa

Midwest: #1 Syracuse over #6 Xavier

East: #1 Kentucky over #2 West Virginia

South: #3 Baylor over #1 Duke

Final Four

#2 Ohio State over #1 Syracuse

#1 Kentucky over #3 Baylor

National Championship

#2 Ohio State over #1 Kentucky

This has been one of the craziest 1st days of the college basketball tournament in recent memory. Here’s a recap of these day’s events.

Shocking Upsets of the 1st day
– #14 Ohio manhandles #3 Georgetown, 97-83.
– #13 Murray State shocks #4 Vanderbilt at the buzzer, 66-65.
– #11 Old Dominion beats #6 Notre Dame, 51-50.
– #11 Washington beats #6 Marquette, 80-78.
– #10 Saint Mary’s beats #7 Richmond, 80-71.

Interesting story lines/stats
– #2 Villanova narrowly beating #15 Robert Morris in OT, even after RM had a 9 point lead at one point.
– 7 out of 16 games were decided by 3 points or less.
– In 3 games, the contest was won on a shot taken taken with less than 2 seconds left in the game.
– Only 5 games were won by more than 10 points (#1 Kentucky by 29, #2 Kansas State by 20, #1 Kansas by 16, #14 Ohio by 14, #5 Butler by 18).
– There were 3 games (out of 16) that went to Overtime. In the past 9 years, there have never been more than 2 OT games in the 1st round (out of 32 games).

Last week, my friend, Howard Lio, posted a comment on my Pac-10 post regarding my idea of parity.

“And Jon, equality is a terrible idea-for a NCAA Season. Where are your upsets now? Where are the cinderella stories? Who is the Goliath in the David story?

A season without a dominant force, just does not generate buzz. This season has only been driven by individual players like John wall, Evan Turner, or Demarcus Cousins.

All i can say is that when i watch the March madness tourney, I can’t say i will be passionately watching, because i cant expect a UNC to be in the Final Four; or cheer for a cinderella story since everyone is on an equal level.

This March madness, the brackets will be very boring to me”

The first day of the 2010 NCAA Tournament just proved that you don’t need a Cinderella story or a dominant team to create an exciting tournament. It also proved that parity across all conferences is very good for the game.

Personally, I would rather see competitive games across the board any day over dominant teams and a handful of Cinderella teams. I had a friend who didn’t follow college basketball at all follow the games intently to see who would etch out the win. Following all these close games down to the wire proved to be extremely exciting for myself and scores of fans across the country.

In a system with parity, every single game will be a good game. Today, 7 out of the 16 games were decided by 3 points or less, and11/16 were decided by 10 points or less. Almost every single game was a competitive game, and caught the attention of fans across the country.

Up until recently, the top 4 seeds would normally always roll over the #13-#16 seeds, winning by double digit margins. Now, even the #13-#16 seeds will fight hard against the top seeds and keep games close. This year we saw a #3 seed and a #4 seed get taken down and saw a #2 seed almost upset. In a couple years, I predict that even #1-#16 match-ups wont be gimme games anymore. I would predict the first #16 upset for a #1 team within the next decade.

Parity is good for the game. We see lower ranked teams play the games of their life, which forces higher ranked teams to answer the challenge. We see closer games won in the last seconds, as opposed to uncompetitive blowouts.

My Official Bracket after Day 1

Round 1: 9/16 Correct

One way to see how you’re doing is to see the maximum possible teams left you have making future rounds. For example, if for some reason you had, Georgetown, Texas, Vanderbilt and Notre Dame all make the Final Four, your max possible score for that round would now by 0/4, since all teams lost today.

Final 4: 4/4
Elite 8: 8/8
Sweet 16: 14/16

I had Georgetown and Vanderbilt making the Sweet 16.