Any true fan of basketball would have had July 1st, 2010 marked on their calendars with a big large red circle for the past couple years? Why? Its the day where the entire basketball landscape could drastically change, where the balance of power would be affected for the next decade or longer. Dynasties could be started, and franchises just utterly destroyed.
July 1st, 2010 is the first day of the beginning of the the summer free agency period, where teams can finally meet and make bids on this year’s free agent class, which might be the best free agent class…in history…of any sport.
Take a look at who’s on the market this year…
Group 1: Stars whose contract expired following the 2009-10 season and can sign anywhere
Joe Johnson, Steve Nash, Carlos Boozer, Chris Paul, Ray Allen, Manu Ginobili, Tracy Mcgrady, Shaquille O’Neal, Stephen Jackson, Jermaine O’Neal, Brad Miller, Mike Miller
Group 2: Stars who are signed through 2011, but can opt out of their contract in 2010 if they so choose
Lebron James, Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Michael Redd
Then there is another whole group of “2nd tier” players who can move around that can add value to many teams.
Obviously, Lebron James is the biggest name out of everyone, and what he does will cause a ripple effect throughout the entire league. No team will sign a player or make a trade without knowing where Lebron James is planning to go.
Where he goes is the million dollar question. Only a handful of teams has the salary cap space to mathematically sign him. In no particular order, Cleveland Cavs, Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, New York Knicks, and the New Jersey Nets.
The two, yet extremely related, things to realize about Lebron are his desire to win and his appreciation for the history of the game. Lebron doesnt want to be known as our generation of Karl Malone, one of the best players to never win a championship. Lebron knows that despite all his personal achievements and record setting performances, he never can be mentioned in the same breath as Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, or Kobe Bryant. To legitimize his case as one of the best players in history, Lebron needs to win…and he has a lot of catching up to do if he wants to catch up with Jordan and Kobe.
This also makes me believe that all the teams that are trying to use their city as a selling point wont succeed. The New York Knick and New Jersey Nets are both trying to get Lebron to go to the Big Apple so that “he can use the city to further his name and grow his empire.” Honestly, Lebron doesnt need a city to grow his name. He’s one of the best business-mined athletes in any sport, and he talks to Warren Buffet weekly about investing advice. Heck, even when he was playing in a “small” city like Cleveland, Lebron was able to grow a worldwide empire.
Lebron wants to win now, and will only go to a team that will give him the best opportunity to win.
Let’s take a look at Lebron’s suitors, from least likely to most likely.
5. New York Knicks
Why Lebron would go to the Knicks: “basketball” capital of the world. the chance to play in Madison Square Garden. Knicks has a ton of cap space and could sign other star free agents
Why Lebron would not go to the Knicks: no decent building blocks of players (David Lee, Al Harrington, Wilson Chandler) currently there.
Like I mentioned above, Lebron will not be sold on the allure of city. The Knicks simply dont have the existing talent that Lebron would want to play with. In order for Lebron to even remotely think about going to the Knicks, he would want both Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh to come along, which is very highly improbable.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
Why Lebron would go to the Cavs: The highest possible contract of any team. Loyalty to the city and fans
Why Lebron would not go the Cavs: Team simply isnt good enough.
For Lebron, I truly believe it wont be about the money. He will go to the team that will field him the best team. With that, the Cavs just simply cant provide him such a team. Ive said it all along that Lebron’s supporting cast for these past couple of years is simply poor. He needs an upgrade at PG over Mo Williams, a new center (Shaq’s leaving), and a secondary scorer (Antwan Jamison isnt as good as he used to be).
3. Miami Heat
Why Lebron would go to the Heat: The opportunity to play with Dwayne Wade
Why Lebron would not go the Heat: Being second fiddle to Dwayne Wade
Lebron James would love to play with Wade, but at the same time, James wants to be the main face of the franchise. After leading the Heat to the NBA championships, Wade is the face of the franchise and will not relinquish that title to Lebron. I dont think Lebron’s ego can handle that.
On a side note, I fully expect Wade to stay in Miami. I also predict that they’ll bring in Amare Stoudemire to join him.
2. New Jersey Nets
Why Lebron would go to the Nets: 2009 All-Star PG Devin Harris. Center Brook Lopez who can be one of the best centers of his generation. Cap space to sign Chris Bosh. New Coach Avery Johnson. New owner Mikhail Prokhorov. Jay-Z is a minority owner. Brand new stadium in Brooklyn in 2012. Play in New York City
Why Lebron would not go the Nets: The Chicago Bulls
The New Jersey Nets are a great fit for Lebron James. They have a solid core in Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, and Brook Lopez, who will soon be a perennial all-star. They also just drafted Derrick Favors, who might turn out to be one fine player. They also have the ability to sign Chris Bosh as well.
A starting 5 of Lebron, Bosh, Lee, Harris, and Lopez? Yeah that can be good. They also just signed Avery Johnson, a great young coach and winner of the 2006 Coach of the Year award.
Coupled that with a new owner who isnt afraid to open his wallet, his great friendship with Jay-Z, and the media market that is New York City, the Nets would be a great choice for Lebron.
However, only one team stands in the way..
1. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls can match anything that the Nets can offer, a PG in Derrick Rose and a young Center in Joakim Noah. However, Rose is far better than Devin Harris, and Noah isnt that far behind in Lopez in terms of development. After trading away Kirk Hinrich’s massive contract, the Bulls put themselves into position to sign two max contract free agents, meaning Chris Bosh can go to Chicago as well.
Like the Nets, the Bulls just signed a new coach, Tom Thibodeau, who previously served as Assistant Coach under Doc Rivers in Boston where he was in charge of Boston’s great defense.
I believe the Nets and Bulls will give Lebron the best chance to win in the future.
What I think it will come down to is what Lebron understands best: history.
Lebron knows everything about Michael Jordan and what he did playing for Chicago. He also knows what Jordan meant to the entire city. He also knows that when his playing career is over, everything will be compared to what Michael Jordan accomplished at Chicago.
Could it be intimidating as hell passing by the United Center every day and seeing a statue of Michael Jordan in the front? Hell yeah. But I dont believe Lebron has or ever will back away from a challenge. There’s no better way to be compared with a person, than trying to take on his legacy head-on.
Chicago has and will always be faithful to Jordan, so Lebron will have to win over their hearts, and the only way to do that is to start winning championships again.
I really think Lebron is relishing this opportunity.
Obsessedsportsnut's Blog 