Any true fan of basketball would have had July 1st, 2010 marked on their calendars with a big large red circle for the past couple years? Why? Its the day where the entire basketball landscape could drastically change, where the balance of power would be affected for the next decade or longer. Dynasties could be started, and franchises just utterly destroyed.
July 1st, 2010 is the first day of the beginning of the the summer free agency period, where teams can finally meet and make bids on this year’s free agent class, which might be the best free agent class…in history…of any sport.
Take a look at who’s on the market this year…
Group 1: Stars whose contract expired following the 2009-10 season and can sign anywhere
Joe Johnson, Steve Nash, Carlos Boozer, Chris Paul, Ray Allen, Manu Ginobili, Tracy Mcgrady, Shaquille O’Neal, Stephen Jackson, Jermaine O’Neal, Brad Miller, Mike Miller
Group 2: Stars who are signed through 2011, but can opt out of their contract in 2010 if they so choose
Lebron James, Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Michael Redd
Then there is another whole group of “2nd tier” players who can move around that can add value to many teams.
Obviously, Lebron James is the biggest name out of everyone, and what he does will cause a ripple effect throughout the entire league. No team will sign a player or make a trade without knowing where Lebron James is planning to go.
Where he goes is the million dollar question. Only a handful of teams has the salary cap space to mathematically sign him. In no particular order, Cleveland Cavs, Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, New York Knicks, and the New Jersey Nets.
The two, yet extremely related, things to realize about Lebron are his desire to win and his appreciation for the history of the game. Lebron doesnt want to be known as our generation of Karl Malone, one of the best players to never win a championship. Lebron knows that despite all his personal achievements and record setting performances, he never can be mentioned in the same breath as Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, or Kobe Bryant. To legitimize his case as one of the best players in history, Lebron needs to win…and he has a lot of catching up to do if he wants to catch up with Jordan and Kobe.
This also makes me believe that all the teams that are trying to use their city as a selling point wont succeed. The New York Knick and New Jersey Nets are both trying to get Lebron to go to the Big Apple so that “he can use the city to further his name and grow his empire.” Honestly, Lebron doesnt need a city to grow his name. He’s one of the best business-mined athletes in any sport, and he talks to Warren Buffet weekly about investing advice. Heck, even when he was playing in a “small” city like Cleveland, Lebron was able to grow a worldwide empire.
Lebron wants to win now, and will only go to a team that will give him the best opportunity to win.
Let’s take a look at Lebron’s suitors, from least likely to most likely.
5. New York Knicks
Why Lebron would go to the Knicks: “basketball” capital of the world. the chance to play in Madison Square Garden. Knicks has a ton of cap space and could sign other star free agents
Why Lebron would not go to the Knicks: no decent building blocks of players (David Lee, Al Harrington, Wilson Chandler) currently there.
Like I mentioned above, Lebron will not be sold on the allure of city. The Knicks simply dont have the existing talent that Lebron would want to play with. In order for Lebron to even remotely think about going to the Knicks, he would want both Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh to come along, which is very highly improbable.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
Why Lebron would go to the Cavs: The highest possible contract of any team. Loyalty to the city and fans
Why Lebron would not go the Cavs: Team simply isnt good enough.
For Lebron, I truly believe it wont be about the money. He will go to the team that will field him the best team. With that, the Cavs just simply cant provide him such a team. Ive said it all along that Lebron’s supporting cast for these past couple of years is simply poor. He needs an upgrade at PG over Mo Williams, a new center (Shaq’s leaving), and a secondary scorer (Antwan Jamison isnt as good as he used to be).
3. Miami Heat
Why Lebron would go to the Heat: The opportunity to play with Dwayne Wade
Why Lebron would not go the Heat: Being second fiddle to Dwayne Wade
Lebron James would love to play with Wade, but at the same time, James wants to be the main face of the franchise. After leading the Heat to the NBA championships, Wade is the face of the franchise and will not relinquish that title to Lebron. I dont think Lebron’s ego can handle that.
On a side note, I fully expect Wade to stay in Miami. I also predict that they’ll bring in Amare Stoudemire to join him.
2. New Jersey Nets
Why Lebron would go to the Nets: 2009 All-Star PG Devin Harris. Center Brook Lopez who can be one of the best centers of his generation. Cap space to sign Chris Bosh. New Coach Avery Johnson. New owner Mikhail Prokhorov. Jay-Z is a minority owner. Brand new stadium in Brooklyn in 2012. Play in New York City
Why Lebron would not go the Nets: The Chicago Bulls
The New Jersey Nets are a great fit for Lebron James. They have a solid core in Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, and Brook Lopez, who will soon be a perennial all-star. They also just drafted Derrick Favors, who might turn out to be one fine player. They also have the ability to sign Chris Bosh as well.
A starting 5 of Lebron, Bosh, Lee, Harris, and Lopez? Yeah that can be good. They also just signed Avery Johnson, a great young coach and winner of the 2006 Coach of the Year award.
Coupled that with a new owner who isnt afraid to open his wallet, his great friendship with Jay-Z, and the media market that is New York City, the Nets would be a great choice for Lebron.
However, only one team stands in the way..
1. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls can match anything that the Nets can offer, a PG in Derrick Rose and a young Center in Joakim Noah. However, Rose is far better than Devin Harris, and Noah isnt that far behind in Lopez in terms of development. After trading away Kirk Hinrich’s massive contract, the Bulls put themselves into position to sign two max contract free agents, meaning Chris Bosh can go to Chicago as well.
Like the Nets, the Bulls just signed a new coach, Tom Thibodeau, who previously served as Assistant Coach under Doc Rivers in Boston where he was in charge of Boston’s great defense.
I believe the Nets and Bulls will give Lebron the best chance to win in the future.
What I think it will come down to is what Lebron understands best: history.
Lebron knows everything about Michael Jordan and what he did playing for Chicago. He also knows what Jordan meant to the entire city. He also knows that when his playing career is over, everything will be compared to what Michael Jordan accomplished at Chicago.
Could it be intimidating as hell passing by the United Center every day and seeing a statue of Michael Jordan in the front? Hell yeah. But I dont believe Lebron has or ever will back away from a challenge. There’s no better way to be compared with a person, than trying to take on his legacy head-on.
Chicago has and will always be faithful to Jordan, so Lebron will have to win over their hearts, and the only way to do that is to start winning championships again.
I really think Lebron is relishing this opportunity.
Obsessedsportsnut's Blog 
I’m glad you realize ESPN’s BS that there is probably a 0.0001% chance that Lebron will go to NY. Honestly the “Biggest Market in the World!” doesn’t apply to someone as transcendent as Lebron who is pretty much a global symbol for basketball at this point. However, I don’t agree with the rest of your assessments.
Why Cleveland is the most likely destination
I think Cleveland is the most likely destination. One thing you didn’t mention is the new CBA coming up. From what I read, it is extremely likely that players are going to be paid significantly less after the new deal is worked out. Therefore, I think it would make the most sense for Lebron to sign in Cleveland because he can get the longest contract there. I know you don’t think that Lebron will go where the money is but when was the last time a star in his prime did that? It’s a pretty significant amount he’s leaving off the table. Also I think you’re severely underrating the Cavs. They did manage to get the best record in the NBA…. I know that there are arguments that they choke in the playoffs or they don’t match up well or whatever but there’s no guarantee that whatever team he lands on won’t have their share of problems. Shaq leaving isn’t that significant… he’s almost as big of a liability as he is an asset at this point. I also that you are exaggerating Jamison’s decline. He averaged 15pts (lower than his avg of 20pts when he was on Washington earlier this season) but I think that is more a product of him not being the main go to guy. He did shoot at 48% which is significantly higher than his career avg. His FT% dropped to 50% but I think that’s mainly due to smaller sample size or something because he’s been a pretty consistent 70ish% his whole career. Conclusion, I don’t think Cleveland will get significantly better or worse but they do have the best record in the NBA for the past 2 years and they can offer the longest contract with the most money.
Why the other teams are not as desirable
Heat: It’s pretty risky committing to a team with literally 2 players under contract for the next season. Also the whole Lebron/Wade thing. They do have kind of similar styles of play and they both want to be the top dog. I don’t know if either of them would be down to play second banana (which you mentioned). However it would be interesting to see… 3 max players, Beasley and a bunch of ring chasers and d-leaguers.
Nets: Uh… I think you’re severely overrating their roster. Remember that these are the same Nets that challenged for THE WORST RECORD IN NBA HISTORY. They look pretty good on paper but Devin Harris had one amazing year but it seems like he regressed and it may have been a fluke since he’s 27. Also I think that Avery might be a negative. I heard he was not liked at all by the players in Dallas. I don’t know if he got any job offers or if he simply didn’t want to coach but he did have an amazing record wise in Dallas so it’s kind of strange why he didn’t get a good coaching position earlier. And as you mentioned yourself, I don’t think the NY appeal is very significant.
Chicago: I agree with you that this is the most likely destination for James outside of Cleveland. I believe that they too have enough room to sign another max. Bosh + Noah + Rose + James with Gibson and Deng coming of the bench? Looks pretty amazing on paper. But that’s just on paper. I feel like overall, Cleveland is still more tempting due to being the best team in the regular season (Eventually I think they’ll win it all… don’t really buy the “not clutch enough” or whatever argument) and the extremely important fact that they can offer the most money.
Sorry for writing so much lol but yeah…
Comment by Eric Li — June 27, 2010 @ 7:21 pm
good point about the CBA, though I did mention that the Cavs were the one team to offer him the largest possible contract. I would agree that its insane to leave that much money off the table, but I still stand by my assessment that Lebron will not be able to win a championship with this current team.
I once compared Lebron’s situation with Jordan. Michael Jordan for 7 years struggled by himself to lead the Bulls. He was at times able to lead the team on his shoulders, but once he faced better teams like the Pistons and Knicks of the early 90s, he just couldnt do it. It wasnt till management brought in a sidekick in Scottie Pippen and a TON of great role players that he was able to take off and win 6 championships.
Ive always said that you need 2-3 stars to win a championship + a roster full of great role players. Jordan and Pippen. Kobe and Shaq. Wade and Shaq. Duncan/Parker/Ginobili. Allen/Garnett/Pierce. Kobe and Gasol.
Im sorry, but Lebron does not have his sidekick. Mo Williams? He MIGHT crack my list of top 10 point guards in the league, but even that’s a stretch. He was an all-star once, but that was because he was 2nd or 3rd alternate or something. Antawn Jamison was once good, but I dont think he was the player he once used to be. I would say that he’s past his prime and will never be an all-star again. Z, Varejao, West, Power, Parker. they are all decent players, but still no star.
Yes the Cavs had the best record for the past two seasons. They are a GOOD team, but they are not a GREAT team. Good teams are supposed to beat teams they’re favored to beat and use homecourt to their advantage, which they did. They arent a great team, because they cant elevate their game to a new level come playoff time and beat the other good teams.
Unless, the Cavs make a trade and bring in a perennial allstar to play with Lebron, I dont think the Cavs can win with this roster come playoff time. Whats unfortunate for Lebron is that the Cavs dont have enough cap space to get it done.
They also dont have a coach.
Comment by Jonathan Lee — June 27, 2010 @ 8:54 pm
Very valid points. I agree that typically championships have 2-3 stars but there are exceptions. One being the Spurs championship from 02-03 where they had an amazingly ridiculous Tim Duncan and their 2nd best player was 2nd year player Tony Parker who was good not great (if I remember correctly had no jump shot at all). If you look at the stats he probably wasn’t even as good as Mo Williams is now. Also the Pistons had a really weird team with no superstar but a bunch of really good players when they won a few years back (although this is a bad comparison to the Cavs lol)
I don’t think Lebrons situation is the same as Jordans because Lebron’s team right now is a lot better. It might not be super great but it’s still good. Jordan’s team never even got close to getting the best record in the league when he was by himself.
I mean I’m not saying the Cavs team is good enough to win a championship for sure but I also don’t think you can say this team will never win a championship. But I just think that you know what this Cavs team is right now. A good team with a really good shot of winning the championship every year especially with Boston getting worse and Perkins with his completely messed up knee. But I think that with a completely new team it’s not a guarantee that they’ll work well together. I mean most likely they will but even if they do work well together, will it be for sure that they’ll be better than the current Cavs team? The Cavs team is pretty deep and is pretty much built around Lebron. A really good defensive team, lots of 3 pt shooters and nobody to clog up the lane so that Lebron can drive as much as his heart desires.
So yeah I totally see what you’re saying and it’s really exotic and exciting to see a super team with 3-4 all-stars but I think staying on the Cavs also gives him a good chance of championship along with the most money would be to stay with the Cavs. But hey I’d be stoked to see how a Lebron-Rose-Bosh-Noah super team would work lol.
Comment by Eric Li — June 27, 2010 @ 10:10 pm
Ultimately, what does Lebron want? At this point, it’s hard to say…
1) Money?- He does want to be the 1st billionaire and Mr. Prokhaviaohsfike;vahav is the coolest owner right now.
2)Championships? – The Bulls would be the best place with 2nd fiddle Rose and Noah along with another free agent.
3) A Legacy? – New York or the Cavs (Either be the 1st man to truly control his team and have it tailored to his every will or….. Be the hometown hero who stayed because he’s loyal and helps the small market team)
Only Lebron knows what he wants (and God), but until that day comes where he chooses a team,
Lebron will just be:
– an entertainer (like Dr. J)
– a choke artist (Giving up on his teammates this year)
– and a man without a ring (Adam Morrison: 2, Lebron: 0)
Comment by Howard Lio — June 27, 2010 @ 8:46 pm
However, we all know that Adam Morrison is better than Lebron, I mean come on!
Comment by Jason Gu — June 28, 2010 @ 12:54 pm
This is a very well thought out article as well as a great blog you got going here! I think that the big problem that is going to face these top tier free agents is the ability to find a good supporting cast because teams have shed so much salary in order to get them. Also, you think you could check out my blog because I really want to know what your opinion is on my thoughts. http://chrisross91.wordpress.com/2010/06/29/lebron-and-sidekick-will-be-dominant-but-will-it-translate-to-a-championship/
Comment by Chris Ross — June 29, 2010 @ 10:51 am
LeBron’s ego is ridiculous. Tell him to shut his mouth and stat padding his retarded stats.
C’mon Sun Yue is 1-0 to Lebron with rings.
and he’s not 0-4 in the Finals.
The Choken One should just take $5 and go to the Lakers riding the bench.
On the other hand, rumor has it Artest is convincing TMac to go to LA for a lot less money.
Comment by Jeffrey Chen — June 30, 2010 @ 1:40 pm
Hi – great write-up. Well I’ve finally figured out this entre ridiculous Lebron James “Decision” situation. What a moron! 1st, he pretends his elbow is hurt and quits in the playoffs to make this all easier to go down. Then he makes a complete circus out of it all so that everyone in the country is totally sick of it. Then this moron gets on TV in front of the entire country to stab his hometown in the back, simultaneously ticking off all other big cities except Miami, so that he can play on someone else’s team! Talk about BAD marketing! Anyhow, slick blog – I’m subscribed to your feed now so I’ll be checking in regularly!
Comment by Pink Magic — July 19, 2010 @ 10:44 am