Obsessedsportsnut's Blog

After 48 games, we have our 16 teams who advanced to the knockout round.

In alphabetical order: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, England, Germany, Ghana, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Paraguay, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, South Korea, United States, and Uruguay.

For those new to soccer, once a team progresses to the knockout round, there are no more ties. If a game is tied after 90 minutes, the games goes into a 30 minute overtime period that is split into 2 15-minute sessions. Unlike hockey, there is no “golden goal” in soccer where the first team to score wins. The two teams play out the entire 30 minute period. If the game is still tied after 30 minutes, the game is decided by a penalty kick shootout.

Moving on to recapping the group stage round…

The most surprisingly bad teams

1) Italy – The defending World Champions finished last in their group and didnt even get a win.
2) Cameroon – I had originally predicted Cameroon would finish 2nd in their group behind Netherlands, and before Japan and Denmark, but they finished with 3 losses. This coming from a team that was runners up in the African Cup of Nations in 2008, and breezed through qualifying with a 9-1-2 record.
3) Denmark – This was a team that finished 1st in its European qualifying group that consisted of Portugal, Sweden, and Hungary. The final loss to Japan was quite shocking/disappointing. I definitely expected more from this team.

The not-so surprising bad teams

France – Pretty self explanatory, only finishing with 1 points, a 0-0 draw against Uruguay. Their self-combustion was well documented.

Statistically, the French were the 3rd worst team at the World Cup. 2 teams finished with three losses and 0 pts (Cameroon and North Korea). Three teams finished with one tie and 2 losses (France, Nigeria, and Algeria), yet France’s goal differential of -3 was the worst out of all 3 teams. A pretty sad display.

It’s all the first time since the 1966 tournament that the finalists from the previous world cup did not advance out of the group stage in the following tournament. Pretty sad stuff for Italy and France.

The most surprisingly good team

Japan earning a victory over both Denmark and Cameroon and advancing to the next round had to be the most pleasantly surprising team in this tournament. Before this tournament, they had never won a World Cup match on foreign soil (they won 2 games as hosts in 2002). To beat two very strong teams in Denmark and Cameroon makes this advancement even more impressive.

The “didnt advance but definitely impressed” teams

1) New Zealand – The Kiwis are the #78 ranked team in the World, and I’d have to say that it was pretty shocking that they had three ties against Paraguay, Slovakia, and Italy. I had written in my World Cup Primer that not all teams expect to go on to the next round. Rather, a lot of team’s one goal is to not be embarrassed on the world stage. New Zealand was one of those teams. I fully expected them to lose every single one of their games, but the fact that they earned 3 hard ties has to be a HUGE accomplishment.
2) South Africa – A lot of news was made about the fact that South Africa was the first host team not to advance to the next round. To be fair, most past hosts were in countries with already well established strong teams. The closest case to South Africa was when United States hosted the Cup in 1994, and needed a ton of luck to advance. South Africa wasn’t favored to advance at all, but they made a really nice showing earning one victory, one tie, and one loss. They actually finished level with Mexico at 4 points, but lost the goal differential tie break to Mexico. Definitely a great showing for the hosts.

The best looking teams

In no particular order, the Netherlands, Brazil, Argentina, and Spain. These 4 teams are on my short list to appear in this year’s finals.

I also believe Portugal and the United States can make some serious noise in this knockout round.

1. Is there an unbalance across confederations?

The CONMEBOL (South America) had all 5/5 teams advance to the next round for the first time ever: Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. What’s even more incredible is that all 4/5 teams won their respective group. Even more impressive is that out of 15 games played, South American teams only lost 1 game (Spain winning 2-1 against Chile). Throughout the group stage, they amassed of record of 10-1-4. A pretty impressive record.

Contrast that to the plight of the CAF (African confederation) who only had 1/6 teams move on to the next round (Ghana). This was supposed to Africa’s coming out party, with South Africa being the first African host of the World Cup, and so many strong African teams, such as the Ivory Coast and Cameroon, that were supposed to make deep runs in the tournament. This has to be a disappointing tournament for the entire African continent.

One generalization you can make is that South American teams are the best in terms of creative, beautiful, and disciplined football with world class players. African teams on the other hand lack a lot of the discipline that is required to win, and as a whole, lack world class players.

Taking a look at other confederations, AFC (asian federation) has 2/4 countries advance, CONCACAF (northern/central america) with 2/3, and UEFA (europe) with 6/13 countries advancing.

2. Can the United States possibly get to the semifinals?

By winning their group, the United States put itself in such a favorable position to possibly reach the semifinal round.

Had they finished 2nd in their group, the US would have had to face Germany in the round of 16, and either Argentina or Mexico (note Argentina) in the quarters. By winning their group, they now face Ghana in the round of 16, and either South Korea or Uruguay in the quarterfinals.

This is no knock on Ghana, South Korea, or Uruguay, but they are no where near the level of Germany, Argentina, and Mexico.

The team of course has to take it one game at the time, but should the United States continue to play well, they have a legitimate chance of making an improbably run to the semifinals.

3. Who wins the “Player of the Group” stage award?

Without a doubt…Lionel Messi, the 2009 FIFA World Player of the Year.

On June 22nd, one of my favorite sports columnists, Bill Simmons, tweeted the following.

After watching Messi this year on Barca & now in the WC, I’m convinced he’s better at soccer than any U.S. pro athlete is at anything.

The biggest knock on Lionel Messi was that he played amazingly well for his club team, Barcelona, but struggled at times playing for Argentina. A lot of people attributed that to the fact that Barcelona coach, Pep Guardiola, plays a more wide-open, free-flowing system that allows Messi to thrive. Many believed that the Argentinian system didn’t allow Messi to play at his best. However, I think it was just a matter of time of the team getting accustomed to Argentina coach Diego Maradona’s coaching style. There’s now a trust amongst the team, and Maradona is allowing the team to just take off. Because of that, Messi is now thriving.

Lionel Messi hasn’t scored a goal yet for Argentina, but there’s a reason why Argentina is undefeated and has scored the most goals (7) through three games. (Yes I know Portugal has scored 7 goals as well, but those all came against North Korea…so that doesnt really count). Messi is absolutely terrifying the midfield and creating numerous chances for his team. Even though he hasn’t put one in the back of the net yet, almost all goals came because of the work he did.

How good is he and how important is he to Argentina’s success now and in the future? If being labeled by Diego Maradona, his coach and 2nd greatest player ever behind Pele), as his successor isn’t pressure enough, he was given the captain’s armband against Greece for the first time in his career. At the age 23, that made him the youngest Argentina captain ever.

Honorable Mention: Spain’s David Villa and United States’ Landon Donovan

On a side note, David Villa is tied with a couple others players with 3 goals as the tournament’s leading scorer. He’s my early candidate to win the “Golden Boot” as the player with the most goals at the end.

4. How were my predictions?

Pre-World Cup Predictions: 12/16 (wrong on France, Serbia, Cameroon, Italy)
Post-1st game Predictions: 13/16 (wrong on Cameroon, Italy, Swizterland)
Post-2nd game Predictions: 13/16 (wrong on Denmark, Italy, Serbia)

# of teams I was correct about from the very beginning: 9 – Argentina, Brazil, England, Germany, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and South Korea.

Full bracket predictions to be done by the end of 6/26.

On record, I will predict a Uruguay victory over South Korea and a United States victory over Ghana.

5) What to look foward to in the next round?

There are three very enticing matchups in the round of 16…

a) Argentina vs Mexico – a rematch of their round of 16 games in the 2006 World Cup.
b) Spain vs Portugal in the Iberian Derby.
c) Germany vs England

Looking forward to some possible quarterfinal matchups, we might be able to see Netherlands vs Brazil and Argentina vs Germany/England.

Should be fun.