Obsessedsportsnut's Blog

With the conclusion of the 2nd set of games, the advancement picture for all teams is pretty clear.

The following teams move on to the next round, regardless of the outcome of the 3rd game: Brazil and Netherlands.
The following teams have already been eliminated from the tournament: North Korea and Cameroon.

All other 28 teams have a MATHEMATICAL chance of advancing to the next round, though some might be more probably than others.

Here are the following advancement scenarios for all teams. Note the following tiebreakers to decide the advancing team.

1) Total points after 3 games (3 pts for a win, 1 pt for a tie, 0 points for a loss)
2) Goal differential (total goals scored – total goals give up). This is noted by “GD” below.
3) Total goals scored
4) Head-to-head matchup

Group A

Uruguay (4pts/3gd) and Mexico (4pts/2gd) are in the driver’s seat in this group. If they play to a draw in their last game, both advance to the next round. France (1pt/-2gd) and South Africa (1pt/-3gd), have a very slight chance to advance. They have to outright win their game, and hope there is a clear winner in the Uruguay/Mexico game. On top of that, they have to make up goal differentials…the other game’s winner has to win by at least 2 goals, and either France/SA have to win by at least 2 goals.

Pre-World Cup Predictions: France and Mexico
Post-1st game Predictions: Uruguay and Mexico
Post-2nd game Predictions: Uruguay and Mexico

Group B

Argentina (6pts/4gd) is in the driver seat of this group, with South Korea (3pts/-1gd), Greece (3pts/-1gd), and Nigeria (0pts/-2gd) fighting for 2nd place.

South Korea, Greece, and even Nigeria can all mathematically advance. Like Group D, there are numerous scenarios that can play out.

1) If South Korea and Greece both win, then Arg, Korea, and Greece would all have 6 points, and it would come down to goal differentials.
2) If Nigeria beats South Korea 2-0 and Argentina beats Greece 2-0, Nigeria would advance based on goal differentials.

I can come up with a list of a dozen scenarios with different teams advancing. I think Argentina is way too strong, and will easily handle Greece. I think South Korea will come back from their hard loss to earn at least a tie, and even win against Nigeria.

Pre-World Cup Predictions: Argentina and South Korea
Post-1st game Predictions: Argentina and South Korea
Post-2nd game Predictions: Argentina and South Korea

Group C

This is another tough group to predict, with Slovenia (4pts/1gd) leading the group followed by the United States (2pts/0gd), England (2pts/0gd) and Algeria (1pt/-1gd).

I had talked about the US’s advancement hopes in my previous post – basically a win against Algeria means that they move on.

If there’s a clear winner in the Slovenia/England match, that winner moves on as well. If there’s a tie in the other match (coupled with a US victory), Slovenia moves on.

I obviously predict a US victory. I also think England has too much pride, and that they’ll show up and play and earn a victory over Slovenia.

Pre-World Cup Predictions: England and United States
Post-1st game Predictions: England and United States
Post-2nd game Predictions: England and United States

Group D

Going into the world cup, many analysts predicted that this was one of the most evenly balanced groups, and that it was the hardest to predict who would advance. After two games, this group is living up to its reputation. We have Ghana (4pts,1gd), Germany (3pts,3gd), Serbia (3pts,0gd), and Australia (1pt/-4gd).

In the third game, we have Ghana vs Germany and Serbia vs Australia. There are way too many scenarios to look at here.

Just think about who would involve if their were clear decisions in the two remaining games (two wins, no ties).

1) If Ghana and Serbia both won, they would both advance
2) If Ghana and Australia both won, they would both advance
3) If Germany and Serbia both won, they would both advance
4) If Germany and Australia both won, Germany would advance, and Australia might advance based on how bad Ghana loses and how much the beat Serbia by.

If both games end in a tie, Germany and Ghana will advance.

If there’s a win and a tie, the scenarios get more and more complicated. Take for example a Germany victory over Ghana and a Serbian tie against Australia. Germany would advance with 6 points, and Ghana and Serbia would be tied with 4 points. Even in this situation, it depends on the actual scores.

1) If Germany wins 1-0 and Serbia and Australia tie 0-0, Ghana’s and Serbia’s goal differential would both be at 0, and Ghana would advance because they scored 2 goals in 3 games, while Serbia only scored 1.
2) If Germany wins 1-0 and Serbia and Australia tie 2-2, Serbia would advance because they again would have equal goal differentials, but Serbia would have scored 3 goals vs Ghana’s 2 goals.
3) If Germany wins 1-0 and Serbia and Australia tie 1-1, Serbia/Ghana would have equal goal differentials and goals scored and goals scored against. The tie breaker then goes to the head-to-head performance, meaning Ghana would advance since it beat Serbia 1-0.

There are many more scenarios to talk about. I will go back to my pre-world cup predictions. Im pretty confident that Serbia will beat Australia, and Germany will beat Ghana.

Pre-World Cup Predictions: Germany and Serbia
Post-1st game Predictions: Germany and Ghana
Post-2nd game Predictions: Germany and Serbia

Group E

The Netherlands (6pts/3gd) has already qualified for the 2nd round, and Cameroon (0pts/-2gd) has been eliminated. The 2nd team advancing will be the winner between Japan (3pts/0gd) and Denmark (3pts/-1gd). If the game ends in a tie however, Japan will advance based on goal differentials, 0 vs -1. I feel Denmark is a much stronger team than Japan and will earn the victory.

Pre-World Cup Predictions: Netherlands and Cameroon
Post-1st game Predictions: Netherlands and Cameroon
Post-2nd game Predictions: Netherlands and Denmark

Group F

Paraguay (4pts/2gd) leads group F, followed by Italy (2pts/0gd), New Zealand (2pts/0gd), and Slovakia (1pts/-2gd).

Like many other groups, every team left still has a mathematical change to advance.

1) Paraguay will advance with a victory or a tie over New Zealand. They can advance with a loss, but only if Italy and Slovakia play to a draw or Slovakia wins and doesnt beat them on goal differentials.
2) Italy will advance with a victory over Slovakia. They can advance on a tie if Paraguay beats New Zealand. If both games in a tie, then it will come down to who scores more goals (Italy or New Zealand).
3) New Zealand can advance with a victory over Paraguay. If they tie, they can advance if Slovakia beats Italy.
4) Slovakia can advance if they beat Paraguay and the Italy/New Zealand game ends only in a tie.

Pre-World Cup Predictions: Italy and Slovakia
Post-1st game Predictions: Italy and Slovakia
Post-2nd game Predictions: Italy and Paraguay

Group G

Brazil (6pts/3gd) has already qualified for the next round and North Korea (0pts/-8gd) has been eliminated, with the 2nd team coming down between Portugal (4pts/7gd) and Ivory Coast (1pt/-2gd). I had said along that it will come down to goal differentials. Both teams will most likely beat North Korea and most likely lose to Brazil. It will come down to who maximizes the number of goals against North Korea and who loses the least to Brazil. Well, Portugal beat North Korea by 7 goals and Ivory Coast lost by 2 goals against Brazil. Basically, Ivory Coast will now have to make a 9 goal differential against North Korea. That means if Portugal loses 1-0 to Brazil, Ivory Coast will have to beat North Korea 8-0. Very, very highly unlikely.

Pre-World Cup Predictions: Brazil and Portugal
Post-1st game Predictions: Brazil and Portugal
Post-2nd game Predictions: Brazil and Portugal

Group H

After Switzerland (3pts/0gd) beat Spain (3pts/1gd), this has to be one of the more shocking, wide-open groups. I find it shocking that Chile (6pts/2gd) is leading the group. Honduras (0 pts/-3gd) is eliminated from the tournament.

If both games end in a tie, Chile and Spain will advance, based on goal differentials. Because Spain and Switzerland both are tied, a loss coupled with a win/tie by the other team will result in the losing team being eliminated.

However, if Spain and Switzerland both win, then we have a 3 way tie for first, since all these teams will have 6 points. It will then come down to goal differentials, while Chile at 2, Spain at 1, and Switzerland at 0. Basically it will come down to who beats the other teams the most.

Pre-World Cup Predictions: Chile and Spain
Post-1st game Predictions: Switzerland and Spain
Post-2nd game Predictions: Chile and Spain